Tag Archives: S&P 500

  Recurring Phenomena Many market participants believe simple phenomena in the stock market are purely random events and cannot recur consistently. Indeed, there is probably no stock market “rule” that will remain valid forever. However, there continue to be certain statistical phenomena in the stock market – even quite simple ones – that have shown a tendency to persist for very long time periods. In today’s report I...

Don’t let “traditional biases” stop you from diversifying into gold – Dalio on Linkedin “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” warns founder of world’s largest hedge fund Geo-political risk from North Korea & “risk of hellacious war” Risk that U.S. debt ceiling not raised; technical US default Safe haven gold likely to benefit by more than dollar, treasuries Investors should allocate at...

Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea seems just one harshly worded tweet away, and the window of opportunity for a diplomatic solution, as well as for the US stopping Kim Jong-Un from obtaining a nuclear-armed ICBM closing fast, analysts have started to analyze President Trump’s military options, what a war between the US and North Korea would look like, and what the global economic...

Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004. It doesn’t even come close to the routine 4-5% year over year growth rates we saw in the late 90s....

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday’s sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained...

– Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation – Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts) – Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900 – Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility – Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility – Bitcoin volatility against USD about 5-7 times vol of traditional...

Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term  - Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation- Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts)- Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900- Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility- Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility- Bitcoin volatility against USD about 5-7 times vol of traditional...

U.S. index futures point slightly lower open. Asian shares rose while stocks in Europe fell as energy producers got caught in a downdraft in oil prices and reversed an earlier gain after Goldman unexpectedly warned that WTI could slide below $40 absent "show and awe" from OPEC. The dollar rose, hitting a four-month high against the yen and bonds and top emerging market currencies were back under pressure on Tuesday, following last week’s hawkish rhetoric from central bankers. Nonetheless,...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs.  Based on the bond markets there has been little change in the growth and inflation outlook since the last asset allocation update. Based on...

Asian stocks rose lifted by commodity names; European equities trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers; we expect the now general vol selling program to promptly lift the S&P into new all time highs minutes...