Tag Archives: S&P 500

So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone. One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo’s equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low. But even an...

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies – Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies– A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP– As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £ – Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies Gold Prices in Emerging Markets Currencies, 2010 - 2018(see more posts...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged. - Click to enlarge There have been two major developments since...

Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries – Increased efforts in green energy and advanced technology set to boosts silver’s demand – Four-year supply deficit set to increase due to fewer mine openings and discoveries – Bank manipulation may be why silver under performing – TD Securities and the Bank of Montreal expect silver to be best performing precious metal in 2018 – Growing...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future… Niels Bohr Every time I see that quote I think to myself, “but that...

The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth. What’s not to love? I just have one question. If things are so good, then why is America’s saving rate posting such a sharp decline? The answer is not...

Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one’s capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5%...

Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on the state of the world’s finances. There’s so much to look at and consider. It’s a sort of digital equivalent of a coffee-table book. Yesterday I got an email from them, containing a “best of” – a compendium of...

– 10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th– Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP– Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later– S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value– Gold’s performance is slowly forcing...

– 10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th– Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP– Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later– S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value– Gold’s performance is slowly forcing...