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A Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet lands during an assessment at the Swiss Army airbase in Payerne on April 30 The Federal Council has changed its approach to buying new combat aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles. Swiss voters will now be able to have a say only on the fighter jets, on which the government wants to spend no more than CHF6 billion ($5.95 billion). It has asked the defence ministry to present a planning...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% at 1.1285 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Since the presidential tweets on May 3, the US had the initiative in the negotiations with China, but today, China has pushed back.  It is cool to the idea promoted by the US that trade talks will resume shortly.  Now it may take the...

16.05.2019 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 1st quarter 2018 and the 1st quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 5.2% to 4.9%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.4% to 6.8%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 1st...

We are adjusting downward our year-end targets for the 10-year US Treasury and Bund yields. Taking hold of two important changes to our central macroeconomic scenarios, we are adjusting downward our year-end target for the 10-year US Treasury yield from 3.0% to 2.8% and the Bund yield from 0.5% to 0.3%. The drivers behind this include lower inflation expectations, rising US-China trade tensions against a constant...

Far from retirement age: ministers Keller-Sutter (left) and Berset. (Keystone / Anthony Anex) The government has announced measures to help Swiss-based workers have better access to the job market. Plans to help older people out of a job are also outlined. The measures, outlined on Wednesdayexternal link by interior minister Alain Berset and justice minister Karin Keller-Sutter, are part of efforts to adapt to an ageing...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.02% at 1.1299 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5. The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was...

Here is an overview of the broad macro considerations for the euro, with some thoughts about the price action, including volatility. It is shared not so much as an argument as a sketch the considerations that drive a view.  1. An 18-month low for the euro was set on April 26 a little above $1.11, immediately after the US reported a stronger than expected Q1 GDP report. The euro has been consolidating here in May and has...

© Tpibernik | Dreamstime.com Last week, a crowd assembled in Bern outside Switzerland’s federal parliament building to protest the roll out of 5G mobile technology in Switzerland. Switzerland’s “Stop 5G” movement is demanding a halt to further roll out of the technology in Switzerland, a process already well underway. They are demanding a precautionary approach and further research into the health effects. Most...

For a lot of people, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. This is called the technical definition in the mainstream and financial media. While this specific pattern can indicate a change in the business cycle, it’s really only one narrow case. Recessions are not just tied to GDP. In the US, the Economists who make the determination (the NBER) will tell you recessions aren’t always so...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.28% at 1.1273 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: merkets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week....