This crypto mine in Gondo could not keep up with competitors with cheaper electricity. (Keystone/ Valentin Flauraud) There was a time when any Tom, Dick or Harry could create (or “mine”) bitcoin with a modified PC. Now only warehouses packed full of specialised computing gear stand any real chance. The bones of defunct crypto mines litter the Swiss Alps. This week saw a special event in the bitcoin life cycle, called “Halving”. Like a super-rapid solar eclipse, blink...
Read More »Consumer Spending Will Not Rebound–Here’s Why
Any economy that concentrates its wealth and income in the top tier is a fragile economy. There are two structural reasons why consumer spending will not rebound, no matter how “open” the economy may be. Virtually everyone who glances at headlines knows the global economy is lurching into either a deep recession or a full-blown depression, depending on the definitions one is using. Everyone also knows the stock market has roared back as if nothing has happened. While...
Read More »The ECB Has Been Hiding Risk. They Won’t Be Able to Do It Much Longer.
Despite the unprecedented increase in the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program, the spread of southern European sovereign bonds versus German ones is rising. The ECB balance sheet has soared to more than 42 percent of the eurozone’s GDP, compared to the Fed 27 percent of US GDP. However, at the same time, excess liquidity has ballooned to more than €2.1 trillion. The ECB has been implementing aggressive asset purchases as well as negative rates for...
Read More »FX Daily, May 19: Optimism Burns Eternal
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0601 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, May 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Hopes for a vaccine and a German-French proposal to break the logjam at the EU for a joint recovery effort helped propel equities higher yesterday. There was strong follow-through in the Asia Pacific region, where most markets advanced by more than 1% today. However, the bloom came off...
Read More »Why is the Pound to Euro Rate Falling? Will it Continue?
U.K jobless claims were released in early morning trading today, much like many economic data releases the figures were posted at an earlier than usual 07:00, we normally would see a release such as this out at 09:30. The figures, as expected were not particularly great reading for the U.K economy however there was a slight surprise in the fact that the official unemployment rate came in at 3.9% as opposed to the 4.3% which had been expected. This news shows that...
Read More »House View, May 2020
Macroeconomy With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%. Likewise, we expect the biggest hit to euro area...
Read More »Restricted Market Trading Comments
By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below Sri Lanka: The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) resumed operations on May 11, 2020 following an extended period of closure. Foreign exchange trading is still permitted...
Read More »Money Supply Growth in April Ballooned to a New High
Fueled by unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages, the money supply growth rate ballooned in April to an all-time high. The growth rate has never been higher, with the 1970s as the only period that comes close. It was expected that money supply growth would surge in recent months. This usually happens in the wake of the early months of a recession or financial crisis. The magnitude of the growth rate, however,...
Read More »How Words Like “Essential” and “Need” Are Abused by Politicians
Over the years, one of the most common trump cards used to justify government treating people differently, rather than equally, has been the word need. And when used to override individuals’ ownership of themselves and what they produce, its usage has created confusion rather than clarity. In public discussion, “need” has increasingly morphed into one of its synonyms—essential, as in “essential jobs.” But it still suffers from many of the same analytical problems....
Read More »The Best 2020 Credit Card Strategy: No Fees and Maximum Returns
(Disclosure: Some of the links below may be affiliate links) Credit Cards are an important part of your personal finances. They are tools that you need to use to your advantage. The problem is that it is easy to misuse credit cards. You need to have a good credit card strategy to take full advantage of credit cards. Since I have started improving my personal finances, I have optimized a lot my usage of credit cards. I have reduced the annual fee of my credit cards...
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