Tag Archives: newsletter

From my remote location in Ocean Grove (next to Asbury Park of Bruce Springstein fame), I joined Martin Soong and Sir Jegarajah for a brief interview as the Asia session was about to begin the new week. A three-minute clip of the interview can be found here. I suggest that there are two main drivers of the markets now. There is the fear of the new surge in Covid cases and the economic implications, on the one hand, which discourages risk-taking. On the other hand,...

The virus news stream remains negative; pressure on the dollar has resumed The US economy is taking a step back just as Q3 is about to get under way; there are some minor US data reports today UK Labour leader Starmer overtook Prime Minister Johnson in the latest opinion poll; Macron’s party did poorly in French local elections French and German leaders meet to discuss the planned EU pandemic rescue package; UK and EU begin their “intensified timetable” for Brexit...

After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, and, yes, China. Three days in, news reached the Diamond that the Communists had closed down the affected region....

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% to 1.0671 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, June 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower. The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%. China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets...

Current Account Key figures: Current Account: Down 13.72% against Q1/2019 to 17.4 bn. CHF of which Goods Trade Balance: Plus 8.05% against Q1/2019 to 17.4 bn. of which the Services Balance: Minus 53.84% to 3.02 bn. of which Investment Income: Minus 0.54% to 6.3 bn. CHF. Current Account Switzerland Q1 2020(see more posts on Switzerland Balance of Payments, Switzerland Capital Account, Switzerland Current Account, Switzerland Financial Account, ) Source: snb.ch...

© Kvaka9 | Dreamstime.com As the events and decisions surrounding the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus become clearer, fingers are being pointed. A mass lawsuit targeting events in the Austrian resort of Ischgl is looming, according to Bloomberg. Could similar legal action spread to Swiss resorts? At the end of last year, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a public notice confirming 27 cases of a new virus and recommended wearing face masks. Around three...

Risk assets came under pressure last week as the virus news stream worsened. It’s clear that large parts of the US will be forced to delay reopening until their virus numbers improve. Markets had gotten too bullish on the US recovery story and so this reality check soured sentiment. This is a very important week for US data, and we think risk sentiment will remain under pressure ahead of what we think will be a likely downside surprise in the US jobs number Thursday....

The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B. All the hopes for a recovery were based on a quick return to the economy that existed in late 2019. All the bailouts and stimulus...

Gold’s Little Brother Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you. Shiny large good delivery door stops made of silver – about to enter interesting seasonal phase. PT Silver’s seasonality under the magnifying glass Take a look at the seasonal chart of silver. In contrast to a...

While the economic storm caused by COVID-19 has seemed to wane (temporarily?), the stock market can’t seem to go but one direction—up. Graham and Dodd’s meaty 700-page Security Analysis has soared to number 7695 on the Amazon best-seller list. According to Warren Buffett, the book is “A road map for investing that I have now been following for 57 years.” One wonders what roadmap the young people who saw the pandemic March meltdown as an opportunity to buy slices of...