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EM performance this week will hinge crucially on whether US equity markets can find some traction. If sustained, last week’s equity rout could lead to a deeper generalized risk-off trading environment this week that would weigh on EM FX and equities. As it is, markets are already digesting weaker economic data and rising virus numbers in countries that had crushed the curve. ECB meeting this week may hint at further easing to come, which could help risk assets...

To quote the last paragraph of this 2008 article by Robert Murphy, when asked why Austrian school economics should be studied, the best answer is: “the Austrian theory of capital is the best one you can find if you really want to grasp how the economy actually works—beyond sterile mathematics and static timeless analysis.” The Austrian school’s understanding of capital and production relies upon three main pillars. First: the factors of production comprise both...

Simonetta Sommaruga opening the Ceneri Base Tunnel on Friday Keystone The Ceneri Base Tunnel has been officially opened, with the first freight train passing through the tunnel in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino shortly after 11:30am. Passengers will have to wait for the new national rail timetable in December. “As a child I spent almost all of my holidays in Ticino […] the journey over the mountain, the Monte Ceneri, seemed to take an age,” Simonetta Sommaruga,...

In an address to the Massachusetts Anti-Slavery Society in 1865, Frederick Douglass noted that he had often been asked “What should we do with the Negro?” Douglass remarked: I have had but one answer from the beginning. Do nothing with us! If the apples will not remain on the tree of their own strength, if they are worm eaten at the core, if they are early ripe and disposed to fall, let them fall….And if the Negro cannot stand on his own legs, let him fall also. All...

© Tatiana Kozachenko | Dreamstime.com In Switzerland, over the three months following 31 May 2020, there have been 11,306 recorded cases of Covid-19 and 91 deaths, a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.8%. However, up to this date there were 30,862 cases and 1,920 deaths, a CFR of 6.2%. Why has Switzerland’s CFR fallen so steeply? A number of factors could explain the decline. Testing The first is testing. Recorded case numbers before 1 June 2020 are not comparable to...

After appointing an auditor last December, FINMA decided to open so-called enforcement proceedings. © Keystone/Lukas Lehmann The Swiss financial supervisor FINMA says it has opened enforcement proceedings against Credit Suisse into the 2019 spying affair that toppled the bank’s leadership and tarnished its reputation. FINMA opened the proceedings after an auditor appointed last December completed its investigation of Credit Suisse, which has acknowledged...

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Make the money cheap enough and government intrusive enough, and incongruous headlines appear side by side. For instance, from the Las Vegas Review-Journal comes this head-scratcher: “Las Vegas Housing Market ‘on Fire’ as Economy Limps Along.” Almost Daily Grant’s reminds us the Federal Reserve is on the job 24/7/365, There’s more where that came from. Last week’s release of the minutes to the Federal Reserve’s July meeting indicated that the Open Market Committee...

Since the unnecessary destruction brought about by GFC2 in March 2020, there have been two detectable, short run trendline upward moves in nominal Treasury yields. Both were predictably classified across the entire financial media as the guaranteed first steps toward the “inevitable” BOND ROUT!!!! Each has been characterized as the handywork of master monetary tactician Jay Powell. There is some truth underlying, only stripped of all that hyperbole. These backups in...

The Fed Emperor’s New Clothes Show is a continuous comedy without laughter. The latest act, the virtual Jackson Hole conference (August 27), was dreadful. The show’s audiences are accustomed to the Fed chair and his board delivering solemn pronouncements about their aims—low inflation, high employment, and financial stability. These officials play their parts according to script. They never explain how they will fulfill their promise—it is all boast and no substance....