Despite a year of tumult on Wall Street and Main Street, the banking system seems to be holding up remarkably well… for now. Whereas previous financial crises were marked by a surge in bank failures, hardly any have gone under so far in 2020. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reports that only 1% of FDIC-insured banks are on the “problem list” for financial weakness. “Banks are safe,” according to FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams. “There are no concerns...
Read More »Does the Free Market Corrupt People?
The political theorist Michael J. Sandel is a popular teacher at Harvard, and his lectures circulate widely on YouTube and elsewhere. He attracted attention as a serious political theorist with his critical work on John Rawls, Liberalism and the Limits of Justice (1982). As most readers will know, I’m no fan of Rawls, and it’s easy to find poor arguments in his A Theory of Justice. But Sandel totally misunderstands him, and his attack on Rawls fails. From the...
Read More »Coronavirus: cheap drug substantially cuts severe case death risk, according to large UK trial
© Sudok1 | Dreamstime.com A trial at Oxford University suggests an existing low cost drug can cut the risk of death from Covid-19 substantially. Tests involving 6,000 hospitalised Covid-19 patients suggest the drug can cut the risk of death for those on ventilators from 40% to 28%. For patients needing oxygen the risk of death could be cut from 25% to 20%. The findings are potentially the biggest breakthrough in Covid-19 treatment so far. Lead researcher Prof Martin...
Read More »Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering
Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we’re hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet. The story we’re told about how our “capitalist” economy works is outdated. The story goes like this: companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production. These profits are income streams for investors, who buy companies’ stocks based on these profits. As profits rise, so do stock valuations. It’s...
Read More »The War On Cash – COVID Edition Part II
The digital “toll” It doesn’t require too dark an imagination to realize the gravity of the concerns over the digital yuan. China is a true pioneer when it comes surveillance, censorship and political oppression and the digital age has given an incredibly efficient and effective arsenal to the state. Adding money to that toolkit was a move that was planned for many years and it is abundantly clear how useful a tool it can be for any totalitarian regime. The ability...
Read More »Coronavirus: the rising number of mild cases with symptoms lasting months
© Piyapong Thongcharoen | Dreamstime.com Those with mild Covid-19 symptoms are supposed to recover after two weeks. However, a rising number of relatively young people with mild cases report symptoms months later. Johns Hopkins Medicine says that those with mild cases of COVID-19 appear to recover within one to two weeks. For severe cases, recovery may take six weeks or more. But more and more people who have had mild cases are reporting symptoms several months after...
Read More »The Smallness of the Most Gigantic
These numbers do seem epic, don’t they? It’s hard to ignore when you have the greatest percentage increase in the history of a major economic account. Just writing that sentence it’s difficult to deny the power of those words. Which is precisely the point: we already know ahead of time how the biggest economic holes in history are going to produce the biggest positives coming out of them. Whether that constitutes an actual recovery as opposed to the simplistic and...
Read More »Why the European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail
The €750 billion stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. However, we must be cautious. Why? Many would argue that a swift and decisive response to the crisis with an injection of liquidity that avoids a financial collapse and a strong fiscal impulse that cements the recovery are overwhelmingly positive measures. But history and experience tell us that the risk of...
Read More »SNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 2020 and Videos
Swiss National Bank maintains expansionary monetary policy The coronavirus pandemic and the measures implemented to contain it have led to a severe downturn in economic activity and a decline in inflation both in Switzerland and abroad. The SNB’s expansionary monetary policy remains necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions in Switzerland. The SNB is keeping the SNB policy rate and interest on sight deposits at the SNB at −0.75%, and in light of the highly...
Read More »Weekly View – Reality check
[embedded content] The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...
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