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Coming and Going Like a Wildfire Second quarter 2020 came and went like a California wildfire. The economic devastation caused by the government lock-downs was swift, the destruction immense, and the damage lasting. But, nonetheless, in Q2, the major U.S. stock market indices rallied at a record pace. The Dow booked its best quarter in 33 years. The S&P 500 posted its best performance since 1998.  And the NASDAQ had its biggest increase since 1999… jumping...

The Great Society is the lineal descendant and the intensification of those other pretentiously named policies of twentieth-century America: the Square Deal, the New Freedom, the New Era, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and the New Frontier. All of these assorted Deals constituted a basic and fundamental shift in American life—a shift from a relatively laissez-faire economy and minimal state to a society in which the state is unquestionably king.1 In the previous...

In 1999, Switzerland signed a deal with the EU allowing free movement of people between Switzerland and the bloc. The deal came into force in 2002. This led to a rise in immigration into Switzerland, which in turn eventually led to rising rents. © Andreaciox | Dreamstime.com However, since 2014 there has been a marked slowdown in EU immigration into Switzerland. In addition, a lot of rental homes have been built. The overall supply of rental properties now exceeds...

Most economists hold that a growing economy requires a growing money stock on grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money that must be accommodated. Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and services, which in turn will destabilize the economy and lead to an economic recession, or even worse, depression. Since growth in money supply is of such importance, it is not surprising that economists are...

The number unemployed in Switzerland at 30 June 2020, fell 5,709 in June to 159,289, according to the State Secretariat for the Economy (SECO). © Wutthichai Luemuang | Dreamstime.com Switzerland’s unemployment rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%. However, despite improving on May 2020, the number unemployed was 53,067 (+54.6%) higher than at the end of June 2019. Switzerland’s official unemployment figures however include only those registered as unemployed, a lower...

The bet between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich shows a fatal flaw in how most people think about inflation. Are you familiar with the bet? Ehrlich wrote a book titled The Population Bomb. He held a pessimistic view of the future, in which population growth would outstrip resources (essentially the same as Thomas Malthus). Simon disagreed. So in 1980, they made a famous bet. Ehrlich thought that the real cost of commodities would be higher in 10 years. Simon said they...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.0629 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Record fatalities in a few US states, coupled with new travel restrictions in Italy and Australia, have given markets a pause ahead of the weekend. News that two state-backed funds in China took profits snapped the eight-day advance in Shanghai at the same time as there is an attempt...

The Swiss travel and tourism sector has been hard hit by the effects of the coronavirus crisis. Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. German tour operator TUI is to close eight of its 62 branches in Switzerland with the loss of around 70 jobs, owing to the effects of the coronavirus crisis. “We are assuming we will organise around 70% fewer trips than originally planned this summer,” says TUI Switzerland’s managing director Philipp von Czapiewski...

Unlike some sentiment indicators, the ISM Non-manufacturing, in particular, actual trade in goods continued to contract in May 2020. Both exports and imports fell further, though the rate of descent has improved. In fact, that’s all the other, more subdued PMI’s like Markit’s have been suggesting. Getting closer to a bottom. Unlike any of the sentiment numbers, however, these trade figures better demonstrate just how far from a rebound let alone recovery the world...

Economist Irving Fisher famously said just before the 1929 stock market crash, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Whoops. Fisher wasn’t just any old economist. Joseph Schumpeter called him “the greatest economist the United States has ever produced.” Milton Friedman and James Tobin agreed. After the sharp March COVID crash, stocks have come roaring back: nevermind the pandemic, protests in the streets, shuttered businesses, and...