Tag Archives: newsletter

Bubbles always look unstoppable, yet they always burst.When times are good, the impact of the marginal buyer, borrower and renter on the market is often overlooked. By “marginal” I mean buyers, borrowers and renters who have to stretch their finances to the maximum to afford the purchase, loan or rent. In bubble manias, buyers of real estate reckon the potential appreciation gains are worth the risk of buying a house...

Peculiar Behavior In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown that the gold price behaves quite peculiarly in the course of the trading week. On average, prices rise almost exclusively on Friday. It is as though investors in this market were mired in deep sleep for most of the week. Upon this I received a plethora of inquiries from readers regarding the corresponding moves in silver.  In response  examine the...

lncrease in construction production in Switzerland in 3rd quarter 2017 Neuchâtel, 24.11.2017 (FSO) – Secondary sector production rose by 7.4% in 3rd quarter 2017 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 6.2%. This is the greatest increase since the 1st quarter 2008. In comparison with the previous year industrial production grew in July by 7.3%, in August by 6.5%, and in September by 13.0%....

- Click to enlarge I had to be on Bloomberg’s Day Break with David Westin and Alix Steel earlier today. We talked about the collapse of talks to put together a new coalition following the results of the September election. I suggested that the initial reaction was exaggerated, negotiations will likely resume in some fashion, and speculation of Merkel’s demise are premature. We also discussed Brexit. I opined that...

Hayek leads the world’s largest watchmaking group (Keystone) The chief executive of the Swatch Group, a leading Swiss manufacturer of watches and jewelry, is upbeat about business prospects for the coming year. Nick Hayek says the Swatch Groupexternal link hopes to reach the ambitious target of a 7%-9% increase in sales this year. “It is not impossible. It might work if sales in [November and December] are equally...

In recent years, there has been a major debate about the respective merits of gold versus Bitcoin, even though many, not all, gold bulls are also supporters of the latter. Gold advocates generally view favourably Bitcoin’s inherent characteristics of decentralisation, finite supply and ability to operate (so far) outside of the usual interference by western central banks. Having said that, the launch of Bitcoin futures...

– Brexit budget – Grim outlook as UK economic forecasts downgrade – UK Chancellor uses housing market policy as smoke-screen for deteriorating economy – UK budget matters more than ever due to BREXIT risks – Policy on stamp duty will fail to aid worsening housing market – Real GDP expected to grow by just 1.5%, 40% less than projections 2 years ago – Households now face an unprecedented 17 years of stagnation in...

Economic Nirvana “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” economist and Nobel Prize recipient Milton Friedman once remarked.  He likely meant that inflation is the more rapid increase in the supply of money relative to the output of goods and services which money is traded for. Photo via mises.ca - Click to enlarge Famous Monetarist School representative Milton Friedman thought the US should adopt...

Summary: Coalition talks will resume in the coming days, and failing this a minority government is more likely than new elections. The is a general agreement among the political elites, and a hubris of small differences. The rate differentials and cross currency swaps show the incentive structure for holding dollars is increasing. Talks to forge a new coalition government in Germany passed the self-imposed...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair broke 0.9892 level and settles below it now, which supports the continuation of our correctional bearish trend efficiently in the upcoming period, and the way is open to head towards 0.9800 level that represents our next main target. The EMA50 supports the negative overview, which will remain valid and active unless breaching 0.9930 followed by 0.9970 levels and holding above them. Expected...