Tag Archives: newsletter

“Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby – Gold ends March with a third-quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011 – Impressive gains seen despite tightening of monetary policy from Federal Reserve – Frisby – gold is set to break through technical resistance of $1,360 – Gold’s safe haven role back in focus with Trump trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions – Now is opportune time for investors to buy gold,...

SPX Trendline Battle, Relative Strength in RUT We reviewed the daily charts after yesterday’s close and noticed that the Russell 2000 Index, the NYA and transportation stocks all exhibited relative strength (the same holds actually for the DJIA), particularly vs. the FANG/NDX group. This is happening just as the SPX is battling with an extremely important trendline. As we pointed out before, relative strength in the...

Petroplus went bankrupt after banks pulled the plug on financing (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Climate fund payments made to now-bankrupt Swiss oil refiner Petroplus cannot be reclaimed by creditors as they constituted a business arrangement that brought benefits to contributors as opposed to a gift. This ruling from Zurich’s highest court has stopped a CH15 million ($16 million) claim in its tracks, barring...

– US needs to borrow almost $300 billion this week alone – This is the largest debt issuance since 2008 financial crisis – Trump threatens trade war with its biggest creditor – China – Bond auctions have seen weak demand due to large supply and trade war concerns – $20 trillion mark reached in early September 2017; $1 trillion added in just 6 months – US total national debt level now exceeds $21.05 trillion and is...

– Eurozone threatened by trade wars, Italy and major political and economic instability – Trade war holds a clear and present danger to stability and economic prospects – Italy represents major source of potential disruption for the currency union – Financial markets fail to reflect the “eurozone time-bomb” in Italy – Financial volatility concerns in Brussels & warning of ‘sharp correction’ on horizon – Euro and...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is credited with being the first central bank to adopt a formal inflation target. Following last year’s election, the central bank’s mandate has been modified to include full employment. To be sure this was a political decision, and one that initially saw the New Zealand dollar retreat. The dual mandate that originated with the Fed has been questioned in the US, but Congress has shown...

A Word on 1987 Analogies – Why Even Bother? As our friend Dimitri Speck noted in his recent update, the chart pattern of the SPX continues to follow famous crash antecedents quite closely, but obviously not precisely. In particular, the decisive trendline break was rejected for the moment. If the market were to follow the 1987 analog with precision, it would already have crashed this week. Nevertheless, we wanted to...

The Trump Administration last week announced tariffs of 25% on USD 60bn worth of imports from China (out of USD506bn of total Chinese merchandise imports). The list of products targeted, still has to be thrashed out. The official aim is to sanction China for alleged theft of US firms’ intellectual property; the US Trade Representative (USTR) estimates the damage amounts to USD 50bn. But President Trump also sees the...

Recent positive developments in the United Kingdom (UK), namely the transitional deal reached between the UK and the European Union (EU) on 20 March and the strong job market report on 21 March, call for a more positive short-term outlook for the sterling than previously thought. We therefore revise our projections upward for the sterling on the entire time horizon. Our new projection for the GBP/USD rate in the next 12...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.34% to 1.1779 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity...