Tag Archives: newsletter

Peculiar Behavior As I have shown in previous issues of Seasonal Insights, various financial instruments are demonstrating peculiar behavior in the course of the week: the S&P 500 Index is typically strong on Tuesdays, Gold on Fridays and Bitcoin on Tuesdays (similar to the S&P 500 Index). Several readers have inquired whether currencies exhibit such patterns as well. Are these extremely large markets also home...

The start of the year has seen the Japanese yen and Swiss franc appreciate strongly against the US dollar (they rose by 5.6% and 4.4% respectively between 1 January and 22 February) despite higher US yields. However, this rise in US yields came with heightened market volatility, favouring safe haven currencies such as the yen and franc. Indeed, both currencies are characterised by structurally large domestic current...

Pallets in the warehouse of the logistics center of one of Switzerland's main online shops (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Swiss consumers are increasingly turning to the internet for shopping. Online sales were up by 10% in 2017, with a 23% increase in online purchases from abroad. The total sales generated from online shopping in 2017 was CHF8.6 billion ($9.2 billion) last year, with CHF1.6 billion going to...

Running for 57 kilometres under the Swiss Alps, the Gotthard Base Tunnel is the longest rail tunnel in the world and took 17 years to build. (Keystone) - Click to enlarge The 2018 European Railway Award has been awarded to two pioneers of the  Gotthard Base Tunnel, the longest rail tunnel in the world that runs under the Gotthard massif in the Swiss Alps. Peter Jedelhauser of Swiss Railways and Renzo...

– Russian central bank buys gold – large 600,000 ounces or 18.7 tons of gold in January– Russia increased its holdings to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s ‘reported’ 1,843 tons – Russia surpasses China as 6th largest holder of gold reserves – after U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France– Turkish central bank added 205 tons “over 13 consecutive months” – Commerzbank– Meanwhile, Russian ally Venezuela is...

Summary China regulators have taken over Anbang Insurance. Group for at least one year RBI minutes from this month’s meeting were more hawkish than expected. The RBI is reportedly reviewing its process for allowing local companies to issue debt overseas. Effective June 1, IDR-denominated debt becomes eligible for the Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is coming under increasing...

Economic Activity Seems Brisk, But… Contrary to the situation in 2014-2015, economic indicators are currently far from signaling an imminent recession. We frequently discussed growing weakness in the manufacturing sector in 2015 (which is the largest sector of the economy in terms of gross output) – but even then, we always stressed that no clear recession signal was in sight yet. US gross output (GO) growth...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.02% to 1.1544 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The economic data stream is picking up, but there is an uneasy calm in the markets. It is almost as if the dramatic drop in stocks has left many with a sense of incompleteness, like waiting for another shoe to drop. The price action has...

Summary: S&P 500 stalled near 61.8% retracement of decline. Dow Jones Stoxx 600 stopped at 38.2% retracement. U.S. corporate earnings growth has been much more impressive than that of Europe. The different performance does not appear to be a function of FX rates. Today is an important day for equities. After a sharp sell-off earlier this month, stocks staged a recovery last week. The recovery has stalled...

- Click to enlarge In large gatherings of people, from airplanes to theater to conferences, we are often told to know the closest exit. The same is true for investing. No matter one’s confidence when they buy a security, someone is just as convinced on the other side who is selling the security. Well into this 4.5-minute interview (click here for the link) on Bloomberg’s “What’d You Miss” show, Lisa Abramowicz...