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On 4 March 2018, voters in Vaud will vote on a plan to provide basic universal dental care funded by a tax on salaries. - Click to enlarge The initiative entitled: Reimbursement of dental care, Pour le remboursement des soins dentaires in French, claims that 10% of the population avoid the dentist because of the cost. They also claim links between poor dental health and cancer, diabetes and premature births. Their...

ICO's have been fuelled particularly by bitcoins (Keystone) - Click to enlarge The Swiss financial watchdog has published guidelines on digital currency fundraisers – known as initial coin offerings – under which it will regulate some ICOs, either under anti-money laundering laws or as securities. The Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) says the guidelines “also define the information FINMA...

US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken – Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate– White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’– US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium– China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”– China is USA’s largest...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Stock Markets EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, February 14. Thailand Thailand reports Q4 GDP Monday, with growth...

The US markets are closed on Monday, and many parts of Asia will continue to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. To help navigate the challenging investment climate, we identify four “numbers” that can illuminate the path ahead. The equity market is center...

Tickets cannot be bought on public transport in Switzerland. Passengers are required to have a ticket before boarding. Those caught on public transport without one will soon have their names put into a national register. This will ensure progressively higher fines are issued to repeat offenders. ©_SBB_CFF_FFS - Click to enlarge The new database will be rolled out from April 2019, reported RTS. By the end of 2019, the...

The bright yellow buses carry passengers throughout the Alps The Federal Office of Transport has filed a legal complaint to the Attorney General’s office and judicial authorities of Bern canton in connection with the scandal hitting the Swiss PostBus company. The complaint for possible breaches of administrative law, fraud and mismanagement is filed against unnamed persons. It is also directed against any parts of the...

Global Debt Crisis II Cometh – Global debt ‘area of weakness’ and could ‘induce financial panic’ – King warns– Global debt to GDP now 40 per cent higher than it was a decade ago – BIS warn – Global non-financial corporate debt grew by 15% to 96% of GDP in the past six years – US mortgage rates hit highest level since May 2014– US student loans near $1.4 trillion, 40% expected to default in next 5 years– UK consumer debt...

Copper vs. Oil The Q1 2018 meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on January 24, about one week before the recent market turmoil began. In a way it is funny that this group of contrarians who are well known for their skeptical stance on the risk asset bubble, didn’t really discuss the stock market much on this occasion. Of course there was little to add to what was already talked about extensively...