We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%. This is great news (and the market responded in kind), as inflation continues to moderate not only here but also in Europe. US import and export prices were also both down in November. Economic sentiment continues to improve in Europe (ZEW survey better than expected) and in Japan (Tankan survey).
As far as the bad news: Well, retail sales declined 0.6% in November, worse than the estimate for a 0.3% drop. Industrial production ticked lower (-0.2% vs estimates of

Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair Charles Munger recently stated:
“The world is not driven by greed. It’s driven by envy.”
I think this perfectly encapsulates our current investing era. In a day and age where social media has replaced not only traditional news media but human interaction, where influencers and gamers are top career aspirations for the nation’s youth, where artists (content creators) are paid by the number of followers, likes, and comments, and where keeping up with the Jones’ (or the Kardashians, or the Windsors) is no longer a silent, Sisyphian struggle but a top-rated TV series or Netflix special, it is only natural for this poison to seep into the investing world.
Youtube stars dole out “investment strategies” left and right,

Are investors at the point of maximum pessimism? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about a horrible 3rd quarter, sentiment, and where investors can look right now.
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Tags: Alhambra Research,Bonds,commodities,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

What impact does Fed tightening really have on home prices? Doug Terry, Alhambra’s Head of Investment Research, explains.
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Tags: Alhambra Research,currencies,economy,Featured,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,Real Estate,stocks

Who is really keeping oil prices high? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun says it’s the banks.

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Is the economy contracting? Alhambra’s Steve Brennan poses that question to CEO Joe Calhoun.
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Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!
2021-10-25

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10 year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we’re right back where we were at the end of March when the 10 year yield hit its high for the year.

Weekly Market

Alhambra’s Bob Williams answers the question, “What do I do if I choose the wrong Medicare Plan?”.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Perception vs Reality
2021-10-18

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large.

Inflating Chinese Trade
2021-10-15

There was never really any answer given by the Chinese Communists for why their own export data diverged so much from other import estimates gathered by its largest trading partners. Ostensibly different sides of the same thing, it’s not

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses China’s Evergrand, this week’s Fed meeting, the overpriced stock market, and the latest CPI numbers and reports.
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SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation Fear Decreasing, SNB Selling Euros
2021-09-20

Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.

Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Dip, If You Can
2021-07-26

If you were waiting for a correction in stock prices to put some money to work, you got your chance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 1000 points at the low Monday and

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses China’s Evergrand, this week’s Fed meeting, the overpriced stock market, and the latest CPI numbers and reports.
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SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation Fear Decreasing, SNB Selling Euros
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Sight Deposits have fallen: The change is -0.2 bn. compared to last week, this means the SNB is selling euros and dollars.

Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Dip, If You Can
2021-07-26

If you were waiting for a correction in stock prices to put some money to work, you got your chance last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly 1000 points at the low Monday and

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun responds to questions about a slowing economy, long-term economic impacts of COVID, stock prices and the business cycle.

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SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation is there, CHF must Rise
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Sight Deposits have risen by +0.2 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars.

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
2021-09-08

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week’s surprising market reaction to the unemployment numbers and why it’s important to study the bond market.

Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Dip, If You Can
2021-07-26

If you were

Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week’s surprising market reaction to the unemployment numbers and why it’s important to study the bond market.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Anniversary!
2021-08-16

Today is the 50th anniversary of the “Nixon shock”, the day President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and ended the post-WWII Bretton Woods currency agreement. That agreement, largely a product of John Maynard Keynes, pegged

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SNB Sight Deposits: Inflation is there, CHF must Rise
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Sight Deposits have risen by +0.2 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars.

RRP No Collateral Coincidences As Bills Quirk, Too
2021-07-12

So much going on this week in the bond market, it actually overshadowed the ridiculous noise coming from the Fed’s reverse repo. Some maybe too many want to make a huge deal out of this RRP if only because the numbers associated with it have gotten so big.

Another Round of Transitory: US Retail Sales & (revised) IP
2021-06-16

Same stuff,

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Weekly Market Pulse: As Clear As Mud
2021-07-19

Is there anyone left out there who doesn’t know the rate of economic growth is slowing? The 10 year Treasury yield has fallen 45 basis points since peaking in mid-March. 10 year TIPS yields have fallen by the same amount and now reside below -1% again. Copper prices peaked a little later (early May), fell 16% at the recent low and are still down nearly 12% from the highs.

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Weekly Market Pulse interview with Joe Calhoun.

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2021-06-22

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week’s events with Joe Calhoun.

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2021-04-19

One of the most common complaints I hear about the markets is that they are “divorced from reality”, that they aren’t acting as the

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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Inflation is there, CHF must Rise
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Update June 21 2021: SNB intervening. Sight Deposits have risen by +1.1 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars.

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2021-06-15

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One of the most common complaints I hear about the markets

When I first got in this business oh so many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn’t waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I’ve related in these missives before, he called those things “well worried”. His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth your time. That has proven to be valuable advice over the years and I think still relevant today.
We continue to hear, on an almost daily basis, about all the bad things going on in the world. Trade wars, real wars, Ukraine, impeachment, black listed Chinese companies, retaliation for black listing Chinese companies, tariffs on European goods (scotch??#$%^&!), climate scolding by woke teens, manufacturing recession, pension

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Alhambra Investments CEO reviews economic charts from the past month and his opinion of what they mean.

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Alhambra CEO discusses all the talk about the recent yield curve inversion and how he views it.
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Alhambra CEO discusses the most important economic reports from the past month.
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Why Eurodollars Might Be Key to the Market Sell-Off (Podcast)
There’s a huge market out there that doesn’t get much attention: Eurodollars. These have nothing to do with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Instead, eurodollars are U.S. dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks and overseas branches of American banks. They’re effectively a source of dollars that operates outside the control of the U.S., and have at various times been blamed for exacerbating interbank lending crunches. Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra, has a theory that recent market volatility might have its roots in some eurodollar drama. He speaks with Odd Lots about how this market grew in tandem with globalization, and how we should

This has already been one of the longest economic expansions on record for the US and there is little in the data or markets to indicate that is about to come to an end. Current levels of the yield curve are comparable to late 2005 in the last cycle. It was almost two years later before we even had an inkling of a problem and even in the summer of 2008 – nearly three years later – there was still a robust debate about whether the US could avoid recession. The answer was, of course, no but we didn’t know that for sure until Lehman failed in September of 2008. 
Our views on the economy are driven more by market based indicators than the economic data itself. We use these monthly reviews to look at all the data and try

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Information and opinions about the economy and markets from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 01/06/2018.

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There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year – and in future years – due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand is not a recipe for higher prices. In addition, there is some fear that the ongoing trade disputes may impact foreign demand for Treasuries. There are also, as our Jeff Snider has reported, some stresses in the Eurodollar market that are impacting Treasuries. 
An unappreciated source of volatility is the mortgage market. Holders of mortgage securities, such as mortgage REITs, hedge with Treasuries

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Jeffrey Snider
Jeffrey Snider, head of global investment research at Alhambra Investments, says China is in fact not growing rapidly, which sounds disheartening for commodity investors. He reckons a crucial investment metric has weakened, pointing to slower economic expansion:
https://www.bnn.ca/video/forget-it-china-s-not-booming-money-manager~1310003

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