Tag Archives: newsletter

A Warning Signal from Market Internals Readers may recall that we looked at various market internals after the sudden sell-offs in August 2015 and January 2016 in order to find out if any of them had provided clear  advance warning. One that did so was the SPX new highs/new lows percent index (HLP). Below is the latest update of this indicator. S&P 500 New High Lows Percent, Feb 2015 - Apr 2018(see more posts on...

(About to set off on another business trip. I will spend the next two weeks in Asia. The updates will be sporadic. Thanks for your patience.) Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.1706 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new...

M Berset a présenté, ce 2 mars, les lignes directrices de sa réforme de l’AVS. Nous en retiendrons deux propositions phares. La première consiste à faire passer la TVA de 7,7% à 9,4%. M Berset impose une majoration de celle-ci de plus de 22%! L’information nous arrive au lendemain d’une annonce d’un excédent de 4,8 milliards de francs sur l’exercice 2017!  Deux milliards avaient été provisionnés pour l’impôt anticipé…....

The Swiss firm, Stadler Rail, has rejected reports that it signed off on a major infrastructure contract with Iran’s Industrial Development & Renovation Organization for 960 wagons for an underground railway system. The companyexternal link said there is no deal or decision but merely a public tender, according to SRF public radio. The details of the reported deal remain unclear (Keystone) - Click...

Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes – Gold no longer fears or pays attention to Fed announcements regarding interest rates – Renewed interest in gold due to inflation fears and concern Fed won’t do enough to control it – Higher interest rates on horizon will make debt levels unsustainable – New Fed Chair warns “the US is not on a sustainable fiscal path” and could lead to an “unsustainable” debt load – Higher...

London Property Sees Brave Bet By Norway As Foxtons Profits Plunge – Sales in London property market at ‘historic lows’ – 65% fall in pre-tax profits in 2017 to £6.5m reported by London estate agents Foxtons – Foxtons warns 2018 will ‘remain challenging’ for London property – Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is backing London’s property market – RICS: UK property stock hits record low as buyer demand falls – Own physical...

The percentage of household assets invested in stocks fell from almost 40% in 1969 to a mere 13% in 1982, after thirteen years of grinding losses. The conventional wisdom of financial advisors–to save money and invest it in stocks and bonds “for the long haul”–a “buy and hold” strategy that has functioned as the default setting of financial planning for the past 60 years–may well be disastrously wrong for the next...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in February 2018 – According to SECO surveys, at the end of February 2018, 143,930 unemployed people were registered with the regional employment agencies (RAV), 5,231 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 3.3% in January 2018 to 3.2% in the month under review. Compared with the same month of the previous year,...

USD/CHF The USDCHF pair shows sideways trading around the EMA50, noticing that the EMA50 shows clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, while the price settles below the intraday bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming period conditioned by the price stability below 0.9440 level, noting that breaking 0.9373 is...

(Several calculation mistake were corrected) The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings. But the SNB may lose 50 billion in one year and win 60 billion in the next year or vice verse SNB Results Longterm 2017 - Click to enlarge Annual result of the Swiss National Bank for 2017...