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The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Last week, Vaud’s government announced a plan for future tax cuts. ©-Erix2005-_-Dreamstime.com_ - Click to enlarge The residents of Vaud are among the highest taxed in Switzerland. In 2016, a single person in Lausanne earning CHF 100,000 paid CHF 16,050 in cantonal and communal tax on top of CHF 1,840 of federal tax. This was the fourth highest across all of Switzerland’s 26 cantonal capitals, and almost triple Zug,...

The US dollar is trading firmly as the FOMC decision looms. In many ways, the actionable outcome of this meeting has hardly been in doubt this year. By all accounts, the Fed will deliver its second hike of the year today. The question is not so much about the next meeting in August. The Fed has only hiked rates at meetings that a press conference follows. This is the source of one of our persistent criticisms of the...

Whenever a big bank is rumored to be in unexpected merger talks, that’s always a good sign, right? The name Deutsche Bank keeps popping up as it has for several years now, this is merely representative of what’s wrong inside of a global system that can’t ever get fixed. In this one case, we have a couple of perpetuated conventional myths colliding into what is still potentially grave misfortune. As noted last time, I...

The ECB has had essentially two options going into the June meeting: either a dovish decision but a hawkish communication (hinting at an imminent QE tapering), or a hawkish decision but a dovish communication (counterb alancing a tapering announcement with dovish sweeteners). Ever since economic indicators have started to deteriorate this year and risks to global trade have accumulated, ECB rhetoric has been...

© Edgars Sermulis | Dreamstime.com Against the wishes of the Federal Council, Switzerland’s upper house, the Council of States, rejected a plan to prevent people from withdrawing lump sums from their 2nd Pillar pensions, according to the newspaper Tribune de Genève. Last week, the Council of States voted 25 to 15 to reject the plan. The Federal Council thinks forcing people to convert their pension money into an...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 6...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Small Crowds, Shrinking Premiums The prices of gold and silver rose five bucks and 37 cents respectively last week. Is this the blast off to da moon for the silver rocket of halcyon days, in other words 2010-2011? We will look at the basis signals in a bit. But for now, we want to comment on the absolutely moribund state...

The concept of bank reserves grew from the desire to avoid the periodic bank runs that plagued Western financial systems. As noted in detail starting here, the question had always been how much cash in a vault was enough? Governments around the world decided to impose a minimum requirement, both as a matter of sanctioned safety and also to reassure the public about a particular bank’s status. Later on, governments...

This is not what we ordered! German factory orders collapsed in April, suggesting that the economic slowdown could extend into Q2. The underlying pace of domestic demand expansion looks more resilient. The main downside risks relate to net exports, in our view. Still, the most recent data releases have not been fully consistent with the ECB’s “hawkish moderation” scenario. A rebound in soft and hard data will be...