Tag Archives: inflation

The FOMC meets next week, with everyone everywhere expecting a 50 bps rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. Yesterday’s “unexpected” and “shocking” negative GDP is unlikely to deter anyone on the committee. Most have already dismissed it as nothing more than quirky, temporary factors, not unlike when they did the same to Q1 2014’s similarly negative result. At least that one had the Polar Vortex (uh oh). Jay Powell’s group can’t see beyond the US border, doesn’t...

Overview: Speculation that a midday statement by China's Politburo signals new efforts to support the economy ahead of  next week's holiday appears to have stirred the animal spirits.  The unusual timing of the statement helped spark a rally in Asia-Pacific that lifted most of the large market by more than 1%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 has nearly completed the gap created by Monday's sharply lower opening. It is rising for the third consecutive session.  US futures are,...

It has been a rough week in most markets with both equities and bonds declining sharply. Tech stocks have been pummeled with many ‘big names’ plunging more than 50% (from their 52-week high). Some of the bigger names include Zoom Video -75%, PayPal -73%, Netflix -72%, Meta Platforms (Facebook), -53%. . The equity market decline is coupled with announced layoffs. Robinhood, the popular online trading platform, announced a 9% reduction in full-time staff this week for...

The goods economy in the United States is – maybe was – the lone economic bright spot. That in and of itself should’ve provoked more caution, instead there was the red-hot recovery to sell under the cover of supply shock pricing changes. The sheer spending on goods, and how they arrived, each unabashedly artificial from the get-go. Combine those two factors, however, the necessary supply squeeze surge in prices along with the artificiality behind it wearing off,...

If only the rest of the world could have such problems. Chinese consumer prices were flat from February 2022 to March, even though gasoline and energy costs predictably skyrocketed. According to China’s NBS, gas was up 7.2% month-over-month while diesel costs on average gained 7.8%. Balancing those were the prices for main food staples, especially pork, the latter having declined an rather large 9.3% last month from the month before. Keeping energy but removing...

Arguably the most important data next week is the flash PMI. It is not available for all countries, but for those generally large G10 economies, the preliminary estimate is often sufficiently close to the final reading to steal its thunder. Moreover, and this applies to high-frequency data more broadly, given the overshoot of inflation in most counties, with some exceptions, notably in Asia, central banks appear to be on set courses.  The near-term data are...

Over the past couple of weeks, we reviewed the U.S. government confiscation of gold by Executive Order in 1933. (see “Gold Confiscation: Will History Repeat Itself?” and “The Facts of Gold Confiscation: The Saga Continues”). One of the points was that the difference between 1933 and today is that gold is not money for banks today. This means banks are not on a gold standard. Some observers have stated that the announcement by Russia’s Central Bank on March 25 to...

In any year when gasoline prices rise 18%, that’s not going to be good for anyone except maybe oil companies who extract its key ingredient from out of the ground (or don’t, as the case can be). Yet, annual rates of increase that size do happen. After August 2017 up to and including August 2018, the BLS’s CPI registered a seasonally-adjusted 20.5% year-over-year gain in its motor fuel component. Economic pain followed thereafter, though not entirely the fault of...

This week on GoldCore TV, Dave Russell welcomes Tim Price of Price Value Partners. Tim sees the current inflationary pressures as simply the beginning of a bigger move that could end in a new monetary system. [embedded content] Make sure you don’t miss a single episode… Subscribe to our YouTube channel [embedded content] You Might Also Like Gold Price Today – Gareth Soloway 2022-03-24...

German optimism was predictably, inevitably sent crashing in March and April 2022. According to that country’s ZEW survey, an uptick in general optimism from November 2021 to February 2022 collided with the reality of Russian armored vehicles trying to snake their way down to Kiev. Whereas sentiment had rebounded from an October low of 22.3, blamed on whichever of the coronas, by February the index had moved upward to 54.3. It currently stands at -41.0, collapsing...