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Stephen Flood

Articles by Stephen Flood

The Inflation Tide is Turning!

8 days ago

In our post on January 28, 2021 “Gold, The Tried-and-True Inflation Hedge for What’s Coming!” we outlined four reasons that we expect higher inflation over the next several years. The brief bullet points are:
Money Supplies have risen dramatically
Commodity Prices are rising again
Reduced Globalization as ‘Made at Home’ policies are proliferating
Pent up demand
Headlines such as this one last week from Bloomberg “Inflation gauge Hits Highest Since 1991 as Americans Spend More” or this one from the Financial Times, “Inflation fears in the UK rocket as supply and staff shortages stymie recovery“, or The Australian Financial Review, “Soaring gas prices add to the energy, inflation crisis“, are becoming regular headlines in the mainstream media.


Why You Must Own

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Gold Leads the Way for Silver

September 10, 2021

Gold leads the way
Last week we wrote about the gold to silver ratio. Our points were that it measures the price of one metal against the other, just as we use the dollars per ounce to measure daily metals prices, and just as we use ounces per Corvette to measure purchasing power preservation.
Also, we discussed the range of movement that silver has around gold over the past fifty years.  We laid out notes for when to buy silver against gold, and when not to.
The Long Run Relationship Between Gold and Silver
Today we expand on the gold to silver relationship. Traditionally, gold moves first, with silver following but moving relatively more.
Since the 1970s, in all the big price moves studied, we find that although silver goes farther, gold leads the way by moving

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The Changing Role of Gold

August 20, 2021

In our post on August 11 titled End of an ERA: The Bretton Woods System and Gold Standard Exchange, we discussed the significance of then-President Nixon’s action of closing the gold window thereby ending the Bretton Woods Monetary system.
Under the Bretton Woods monetary system, central banks could exchange their US dollar reserves for gold. This also ended the gold fixed price of US$35 per ounce.
This week we explore the two questions that concluded last week’s article: What role can gold serve in the international financial system in the future? And why do central banks continue to increase their gold reserves?
Starting with the latter question of why central banks continue to increase their gold reserves?
This is an important factor in the gold market and

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Gold, Stocks & Commodities- A Complicated Correlation

August 7, 2021

In our July 29 post titled How Gold Stacks Up Against Stocks, Property, Commodities and Big Macs! we showed readers charts of gold as a ratio to other assets and products. We discussed that gold competes with crypto and stocks for the investment dollars.

It was clear that gold as a ratio of the S&P 500 Index and of the broader MCSI World Equity Index show that gold is ‘relatively cheap’ compared to these measures.

But then we showed that this wasn’t the case when we looked at the long run ratio of gold to other assets and products. Examples we used where wheat prices, UK house prices, oil prices, and the price of Big Macs.

The ‘relatively cheap’ ratio of gold to the two equity market indices said another way is that these indices have risen or

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Quantitative Easing: A Boon or Curse?

July 24, 2021

Central banks’ massive Quantitative Easing (QE) programs have come under scrutiny many times since the central banks fired up the printing press and began quantitative easing programs en masse after the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
However, the increase in central bank assets due to quantitative easing programs during the crisis pale in comparison to the QE programs during the Covid pandemic.
As economies recovered after the Great Financial Crisis many worried that consumer price inflation would rise rapidly due to the extra liquidity in the market. A fear that never materialized as many economies stayed well below central bank inflation targets.
Quantitative Easing Leading to Financial Crisis?
The question being asked now is have these programs led to

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Is Gold Still in a Bull Market?

June 26, 2021

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Today Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist of talks about his technical analysis of gold and silver as well as giving us insights in to the recent moves in Bitcoin and the stock markets.
Recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that they may need to raise rates in 2023 (2 years away!). This is primarily due to the continued excessive money printing fueling a surge in inflation. Inflation is no longer transitory but could remain high for some time. All this should have been positive for a gold bull market, but instead, we saw a $90 correction in the gold price. Gareth talks to Dave Russell on this episode of GoldCore TV, who asks; “Is Gold Still in a Bull Market?”
Watch the Video to Learn More

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Demand for Gold is Expected to Grow Exponentially in 2021

May 6, 2021

The difference between physical gold investing and ETF investing was stark in the first quarter 2021 according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends data released last week.
Before focusing in on investment demand below a few notes on overall gold demand in the first quarter.
Total gold demand in the first quarter of 2021 was down 4%. However, because gold production and gold demand (jewellery, bar and coin etc.) are decentralized around the globe, and no one ever has a complete picture of all transactions. So the WGC adds up all the known supply and demand. If measured demand does not exactly match measured supply, then there is an X factor added to demand, because in the end demand should always equal supply.
In the first quarter this balancing X

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Marriage of Gold and Cryptocurrencies: A New Future?

April 16, 2021

The debate between relatively new digital cryptocurrencies versus ‘tried and true’ gold has dominated most precious metals related websites. But what if gold and cryptocurrencies were combined? According to a Bloomberg article a NYC Real Estate Mogul, after learning about cryptocurrencies from his son, is putting this concept to work by securing a minimum of $6 billion in gold reserves to back his new cryptocurrency.
The concept of pegging a digital currency to an external reference is not a new one. Called stablecoins the idea is to back the currency with something permanent. Using gold reverts currency back to the origins of how our traditional banking system started and helps ‘stabilize’ price instability.
In the future, will digital currencies (when combined

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Is ESG Investment the Future of Gold & Silver?

April 10, 2021

‘ESG’ is a great buzzword in investing right now. For years the momentum has been building for the idea that retirement savings should do more than keep you secure, it also should help the planet. Obviously, no one wants to hurt the planet since its our only home. ESG Investment is shorthand for Environmental, Social and Governance, which are the three lenses through which investments are to be ranked. High ranking companies get more money from investors than low rankers. The competition to rank high is fierce since having more investors is an important thing for companies. ESG is part of the broad socially responsible investing trend that focuses on development of a more sustainable financial system.
This quote from Civitas Post gives reference for the speed of

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Is The Bull Market Over For Gold?

April 3, 2021

Gold has not made new highs in many months. Gold peaked last year at US$2067 on August 6. The 7 month down leg of more than 18% as been deep enough and long enough that some commentators are now saying that the bull market has now turned to a bear market for gold.  Losing faith is understandable because falling prices feel bad. But this week we want to show that current prices may not reflect reality. We will review the story of Archegos Capital Management which proved that prices often are false signals, a picture painted by others who have their own agenda. Then we can relate that story back to gold and silver by making the point that 7 months of down leg means nothing.
Archegos is something almost no one

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ETF Gold Demand Soars while Consumer Demand Slows

March 19, 2021

ETF gold demand from investors has soared over the past year. The unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus were rolled out to tackle the effects of Covid -19. However, consumer demand, particularly but not surprisingly, jewellery demand slumped.

What’s in store for gold demand fundamentals for 2021?
Increased consumer demand in China and India will help support the gold price in 2021. There is little doubt that investment demand – especially into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), the similar products was the main driver of the gold price higher in 2020. According to World Gold Council data, total ETF demand surged 120% from 398.3 tonnes in 2019 to a new record high in 877.1 tonnes in 2020. However, consumer demand, comprised of jewellery plus bar as coin demand

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Central Banks Will Still Do “Whatever It Takes”!

March 6, 2021

Governments are taking a page out of the play book that monetary policy began a decade ago – which will lead to even higher debt levels.
During the throes of the financial crisis almost a decade ago Mario Draghi, then President of the European Central Bank (ECB) pushed the ECB’s mandate to the limits with his speech in July 2012:
“within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough”
This was during a time when Greece, Portugal and Ireland had already received financial stabilization support from the European Union, IMF and ECB. Concern that rapidly rising government bond yields in southern Eurozone countries would create a domino effect of financial crises requiring financial stabilization packages

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How High is Too High for Rising Government Bond Yields?

February 26, 2021

The two day rise in the gold price of more than US$50 fizzled out on Tuesday. The gold price is down about 7% (in US dollar terms) since its year-to-date high set on January 6. It is also down 13% from its all-time high set in August 2020. The silver price, boosted by social media attention, did not set its year-to-date high until February 1. Since then the silver price has slid about 5% from that high. Chairman Powell testified to Congress on Tuesday stating that the Fed plans to stay its course of keeping the Fed funds rate low. It is also continuing its asset purchase. This did little to inspire a further rise in the gold or silver price. But what about rising government bond yields?
Interpreting the Fed Chairman
The increase in inflation expectations,

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Gold Price Forecast – LBMA Survey Published

February 14, 2021

The LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) annual forecast survey published last week shows that forecasters expect the average gold price to rise 11.5% in 2021 to US$1973.8 (forecasters’ average) from the actual average gold price in 2020 of US$1769.6, and for the silver price to rise 38.7% in 2021 to US$28.50 from the actual annual average of US$20.55 in 2020. These expected averages show silver might gain three times more percentage than that of gold in 2021.  
There was, of course, a wide range of views among forecasters with a US$650 price difference between the highest forecast for the average price of gold for 2021 at US$2300 and the lowest at US$1650. And for silver the range was US$28 with the highest annual average forecast at US$47 and the lowest at

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Gold, the Tried-and-True Inflation Hedge for What’s Coming!

January 28, 2021

Global confirmed coronavirus cases surpassed 100 million this week. There is no denying that the coronavirus pandemic has caused tremendous hardship and loss. To mitigate new cases climbing further, stricter lockdown and travel restrictions are being announced and implemented, with the curfew in the Netherlands as an example. Lock-down fatigue, as evidenced by the riots against this implemented curfew, is growing. Through it all, hope is on the horizon as vaccine roll-out plans are being implemented. Many governments continue to aim for herd immunity by autumn of this year.

Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus has been pumped into economies around the world to help ease the economic devastation for both individuals and businesses.
Building on hope for herd

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$1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan Positive for Gold

January 23, 2021

The Massive $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan is Just the Start
Massive $1.9 Tr. American rescue plan to affect markets
Yellen takes over at US Treasury, what to expect
More spending initiatives to come
How all this is positive for gold and silver prices
The Biden Administration’s policies are positive for gold and silver prices. The $1.9 trillion – American Rescue Plan released on January 14 is just the beginning of spending initiatives. The plan is chocked full of both direct spending initiatives to combat the negative economic effects of the coronavirus, but also has sprinklings of campaign promise initiatives the administration will focus on getting passed.
An overview of the proposed American Rescue Plan:
$1 trillion in direct aid to families including: a

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Gold & Silver Charts Point to Higher Prices & Chris Vermeulen

January 12, 2021

Chris Vermeulen of joins Dave Russell of GoldCore TV.
Chris discusses the chart patterns that the long term gold and silver charts are presenting and what he believe that this means for gold, silver and platinum for 2021.
Chris is an expert technical analyst and also understands the fundamentals of the precious metals markets and how it acts as financial insurance for your portfolio.
Click the video below to watch.
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You can find out more about the services that Chris offers at –
Don’t forget to “Like” and share this video and to ensure that you are alerted each time we upload new videos to YouTube, click the subscribe button and hit the notifications bell too!

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Gold to $2,300 and Silver to $35 by Year End – 2021, the Year the Barometer Explodes?

January 9, 2021

The US dollar set for further dramatic declines?
Negative interest rate policy spreading
Increased global liquidity in attempt to ignite a recovery
Democrats’ win paves way for massive stimulus packages
Gold and silver set to rally strongly in a perfect storm
As the current wave of Covid19 strongly takes hold, it has devastated the lives of individuals and families and created an uneasy anxiousness not just in individuals but also in financial markets. It has turned a public health crisis in to an economic, financial and in some cases a political crisis too. We have watched as some of the most powerful democracies in the world struggle to maintain the very thing that defines them. All the while gold sits and watches and acts as a barometer for the perceived risk

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There is No Denying that Cash is Trash!

December 4, 2020

By Stephen Flood

Governments are likely to continue printing money to pay their debts with devalued money. That’s the easiest and least controversial way to reduce the debt burdens and without raising taxes.
Ray Dalio – Bridgewater Associates

This is the only chart that matters in the world today.
Consider the following:
Gold can only be produced at a rate of 1.6% per annum. This is a relative constant.
Gold has returned 8% per year in Euros and 9% in USD terms over the past 20 years.
Gold has returned 12% per year in the Euros and 10% in USD terms over the past 50 or so years.
Global population is growing at 1.1% per year.
USD Currency in circulation as defined by the M1 monetary base has grown by 41% in the year to November 2020.
Think about that last point.

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Biden Transition and Vaccine Hopes Weigh on Gold for Now

November 25, 2020

Today we are taking our monthly look at the charts for gold and silver.
We have now received news of 3 Covid19 vaccines that are seeking approval following successful trials and markets have sat up and listened.
Investors have moved in to “Risk On” mode as a result of the vaccine developments and also on signs that the transition to the Biden administration is now progressing better than previously. While stock markets, oil markets and cryptos have benefitted from this renewed positive sentiment, the precious metals have been sold down as a result.
First let’s take a look at the gold price chart…
The support level at $1,860 which had help on a number of occasions recently, eventually succumbed to the positive news cycle and heavy selling.

GoldCore Gold Chart –

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What is “The Great Reset” and How to Prepare

November 21, 2020

“The Great Reset” is a term that we are hearing more frequently in the financial news today, but what exactly is “The Great Reset”?
In Episode 16 of The Goldnomics Podcast, Stephen Flood, Mark O’Byrne and Dave Russell discuss “The Great Reset” and how it could impact investors, what they can do now to prepare themselves and their finances and the role that gold plays in protecting your wealth.
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Is the US Election the “Cork in the Bottle” for Gold and Silver?
Today we are taking our weekly look at the charts for gold and silver.
Republicans and Democrats continue to play the “will they, won’t they?” game over another stimulus package in a Covid19

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Gold and Silver to Explode Higher Regardless of the US Election Result?

November 7, 2020

Today we are taking our weekly look at the charts for gold and silver.
After what has been the most unusual campaign season for both candidates, election day has finally arrived.
Regardless of your political persuasions, both gold and silver look to be setting up for an explosive move higher.
First let’s take a look at the gold price chart…
After pulling back from its all-time high of approx. $2,065, gold has consolidated and seems to have formed a nice base. It has been trading in a range between approximately $1,860 and $1,930, with the lower support level proving strong.
The uncertainty of the election result, coupled with the indecision of the next stimulus package has left many investors on the side lines for now, but we are seeing some bullish signals

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Why High Net Worth Investors are Opting for Physical Gold Vs ETFs, Digital Gold & Crypto-Currencies

November 6, 2020

As we continue to await the official result of the US Election, in the short-term financial markets remain volatile.
However, today Mark O’Byrne is talking with David Bell of PCD Club about why the current uncertainty in global financial markets has High Net Worth Investors seeking out physical gold coins and bars in preference to ETF’s, Digital Gold and Crypto-Currencies.

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Is the US Election the “Cork in the Bottle” for Gold and Silver?
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Republicans and Democrats continue to play the “will they, won’t they?” game over another stimulus package in a Covid19 ravaged US economy. An agreement on a

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