United States The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss. It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Sep 2013 - Sep 2018(see more posts on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, ) Source: investing.com - Click to enlarge The most important part of the...
Read More »FX Daily, September 6: Fragile Calm Weighs on Greenback
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.21% at 1.1276 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The euro set a new high for the week in Asia earlier today near $1.1660. It subsequently was sold off to $1.1615 before rebounding. There is a 1.6 bln euro option struck at $1.16 that will be cut today. That it remains firm is impressive given...
Read More »FX Daily, September 05: Continuing EM Pain Helps the Dollar, but does Little for Yen
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.20% at 1.1305. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dollar is posting gains against most of the emerging market and major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off 1.6% and extending the drop to a sixth consecutive session. Indonesia’s bourse saw the largest decline (~3.75%) in the...
Read More »FX Daily, September 04: Dollar Gains Broadly
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% at 1.1263. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is rising against all the major and emerging market currencies today. The signals from the White House suggest strong pressure will be exerted on Canada to sign on to NAFTA 2.0 or risk losing part of its auto sector, which of...
Read More »The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections
The winding down of the North’s summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader. The effect of monetary tightening and fiscal stimulus...
Read More »FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% at 1.1275. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations...
Read More »FX Daily, August 30: Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% at 1.1315. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed. The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures. However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today’s markets. Disappointing...
Read More »FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.47% at 1.1361. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 29(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar has steadied after pulling back in recent days, but the downside correction does not appear complete, and month-end flows are still a risk to picking a dollar-bottom. The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors. The main...
Read More »FX Daily, August 28: Greenback Remains On Defensive
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% at 1.143. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Corrective forces continue to weigh on the US dollar. Sometimes the narratives drive the price action and sometimes the price action drives the narratives. Currently the latter appears to hold sway. The dollar’s downside correction began around...
Read More »FX Daily, August 27: A Dog Day of Summer
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% at 1.1439. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Last week’s dollar losses were initially extended in Asia before it came back bid. The euro briefly poked through $1.1650 for the first time in three weeks. However, the gains were sold into, and the euro finished the Asian session near $1.16,...
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