Tag Archives: equities

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets.  This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line). Both time series are indexed as to June 15, but they were at nearly identical levels as the UK voted.  The developed market equities fell more...

To say that the Brexit vote on June 23 took financial markets by surprise would be an understatement. The pound, British stocks, and Gilt yields had all risen sharply in the week leading up to the vote, only to crash once the results started coming in. Broadly speaking, strategists on Credit Suisse’s Global Markets and Investment Solutions and Products (IS&P) teams expect markets to remain volatile in the coming days and for investors to prefer safe assets to risky ones. Below, we...

The Swiss National Bank has achieved a profit of 5.7 billion CHF in Q1/2016. The total yield on assets per annum was 3.4%.The main contribution comes from gold with price change of 10% in this quarter, hence a total yield of 48%.The total yield on debt was positive with +0.2% thanks to negative interest rates.The deflationary environment let to rising bond prices. Bonds, make up 74% of the SNB portfolio. Here the details of our calculation: Position Total Positionin bn CHF % of Total...

The Q1/2016 update on the SNB investment strategy and its assets. The Swiss National Bank is a passive conservative investor. As opposed to other investors, the exposure in currencies is as important as the strategic asset allocation according asset classes (bonds, equities, cash, real estate).  The importance of currencies is one reason why the SNB is often called a hedge fund, the second the volatility of gains and losses.The SNB balance sheet looks as follows: In this post we will...

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1.  At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable. We suspect the Fed will look past the weakness of the US economy. The strength of the labor market, with weekly initial jobless claims at their lowest level since 1973 and continuing claims at their lowest level since 2000, it is difficult to get too negative the US...

Macroview Macro managers have reduced their equity exposure amid modest positive returns year-to-date, while long/short equity managers have been challenged by sharp market rotations. Equity risk in macro managers' portfolios is below the historical average. Many expect stock markets to trend lower – not necessarily because of a coming recession but because of peak margins and outflows from petrodollar-dependent sovereign wealth funds. The effectiveness of QE programmes is also being...

Macroview Equity markets made one of their worst starts to a New Year since 1900, with the MSCI World index tumbling 6% in January. Uncertainties related to the slowdown in China’s economy cranked up financial stresses and strains on companies producing raw materials. In addition, the US dollar’s rise was an added volatility factor as it increased the cost of debt issued by emerging-market borrowers. Falls of 5% on the S&P 500, 6.4% on the Stoxx Europe 600 and 7.4% on the Topix in...

The decline in equity markets since the start of the year stands out as one of the largest in history in January, not only in its magnitude but also its suddenness. One has to go back to 1897 to find such a bad start for equity markets. This note will analyse the situation on the markets and the prospects for a rebound. As often in a large correction, one can find many causes. We think the following are the most significant: Monetary policy running out of steam. The fall in commodities...

A major turnaround in market sentiment appears unlikely in the short term, given continued concerns over growth and policy, as well as a likely poor corporate results season. Chinese equity markets experienced a substantial sell-off in early January, with the CSI 300 losing 7% on both 4 and 7 January. This sent jitters across global financial markets. The latest bout of market instability in China does not appear to have been related to any change in the country’s economic fundamentals....

Is it August 2015 again? In the first week of January, a spectacular Chinese stock market crash once again prompted officials to provide extraordinary stimulus measures and devalue the yuan. Just as before, gyrations in China pushed global markets deep into risk-off mode, with selloffs in Asian, European, and U.S. equities, as well as crude oil futures. The resolution is likely to be the same as it was last August, too, according to Kasper Bartholdy, Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income...