Tag Archives: China

Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that the Fed may ultimately need to go past neutral. Clarida last week said the FF rate was close to neutral and that future hikes should be “data...

The investment climate will be shaped by three events next week. ECB President Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament to kick-off the week. Fed Chairman Powell speaks to the NY Economic Club in the middle of the week. Presidents Trump and Xi are to meet at the G20 meeting to end the week in hopes of dialing back the escalating trade conflict. Also at the G20 summit, the NAFTA2.0 is expected to be signed, and...

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but “what we know that just ain’t so.” Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC’s efforts to enforce the agreed-upon...

Im freien Fall: Zwei Händler beim Ölpreissturz an der Börse in New York. (Foto: Daniel Barry/Getty Images) Ein Fass Rohöl der Qualität Brent kostet heute 65 US-Dollar und damit fast gleich viel wie am ersten Handelstag 2018. Zwischen diesen beiden Terminen vollführte der Ölpreis allerdings eine wahre Berg-und-Tal-Fahrt. Kein anderer wirtschaftlicher Indikator spiegelt so unmittelbar die Hoffnungen und Ängste, welche dieses Jahr sowohl Anleger als auch Wirtschaftsakteure umtreiben. Auch...

Retail sales rebounded 0.8% in October 2018 from September 2018, but it’s the downward revisions to the prior months that are cause for attention. The estimates for particularly September were moved sharply lower. Total retail sales two months ago had been figured last month at $485.8 billion (unadjusted) originally, but are now believed to have been just $483.0 billion. The difference takes the growth rate underneath...

It’s one of those “nothing to see here” moments for Economists trying not to appreciate what’s really going on in China therefore the global economy. The slump in China’s automotive sector dragged on through October, with year-over-year sales down for the fourth straight month.Auto sales last month were off 12% from a year earlier to 2.38 million, the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said...

The Federal Reserve’s confidence in the economy and its need to continue to gradually increase interest rates stands in sharp contrast to most of the other major central banks. The European Central Bank will finish its asset purchases at the end of the year, but it is in no position to begin to normalize interest rates. Indeed, the risk is that it may feel compelled to off another Targeted Long-Term Repo, which would,...

When William Gibson would say that “the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed,” he was referring to how wealth and location determine one’s access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship. In a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, former Treasury Secretary Paulson seemed to express the views of many. If neither the US nor China changes its...

Last month’s downdraft in equities spooked investors. The fear that is often expressed is that the end of the business cycle may coincide with the end of a credit cycle and a return to 2008-2009 crisis. It seems like an increasing number of economists agree with the sentiment expressed by President Trump that the Fed is too aggressive. Of course, they do not think the president should comment on Fed policy, but they...

Trade war stuff didn’t really hit the tape until several months into 2018. There were some noises about it back in January, but there was also a prominent liquidation in global markets in the same month. If the world’s economy hit a wall in that particular month, which is the more likely candidate for blame? We see it register in so many places. Canada, Europe, Brazil, etc. It does seem as if someone flipped a switch...