Tag Archives: 5) Global Macro

 L’endettement mondial, qui a atteint 164.000 milliards de dollars en 2016 et représente 225% du PIB mondial, représente un risque pour l’économie, a prévenu mercredi le FMI. Le monde est désormais 12% plus endetté que lors du précédent record en 2009 », a déploré le FMI. (Crédits: afp) - Click to enlarge L’endettement mondial atteint des records, sous l’impulsion de la Chine, au point de dépasser largement les...

The term itself gives it away. They called it quantitative easing for a specific reason. Both words mean to convey substantial concepts. The first part, quantitative, was used because it sounds deliberate, even scientific. It implies a program where great care and study was employed to come up with the exact right amount. It’s downright formulaic, where you intend that by doing X you can predictably create Y. The...

How quickly things change in these markets. In the report two weeks ago, the markets reflected a pretty obvious slowing in the global economy. In the course of two weeks, what seemed obvious has been quickly reversed. The 10-year yield moved up a quick 20 basis points in just a week, a rise in nominal growth expectations that was mostly about inflation fears. The economic news over the last two weeks does not appear to...

Beginning with its very first issue in May 1915, the Federal Reserve’s Bulletin was the place to find a growing body of statistics on US economic performance. Four years later, monthly data was being put together on the physical volumes of trade. From these, in 1922, the precursor to what we know today as Industrial Production was formed. The index and its components have changed considerably over its near century of...

Self-destruction isn’t a bug, it’s a feature of our socio-economic system. The gravitational pull of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives is scale-invariant, meaning that we can discern the strange attraction to self-destruction in the entire scale of human experience, from individuals to families to groups to entire societies. The proliferation of self-destructive behaviors, choices and incentives in our...

Stock Markets EM FX came under renewed pressure last week as US yields rose to new highs for the cycle. RUB and TRY were the top performers last week, while MXN and COP were the worst. There are no Fed speakers this week due to the embargo ahead of the May 2 FOMC meeting. While we see little chance of a hike then, markets are likely to remain nervous. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, April 18 - Click to enlarge...

Anyone accepting “facts” or narratives from any interested party is being played. About the only “fact” the public knows with any verifiable certainty about Syria is that much of that nation is in ruins. Virtually everything else presented as “fact” is propaganda intended to serve one of the competing narratives or discredit one or more competing narratives. Consider a partial list of “interested parties” spinning their...

[embedded content] Related posts: Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty Why Trade Wars Ignite and Why They’re Spreading The Genie’s Out of the Bottle: Eight Defining Trends Are Reversing Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Investing Is Not A Game of Perfect US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken Less Retail Jobs,...

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding – for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating somewhat (see the Bi-Weekly Economic Review) the change isn’t sufficient to warrant an asset...

The monetary distortions, imbalances and perverse incentives are finally bearing fruit: trade wars. What ignites trade wars? The oft-cited sources include unfair trade practices and big trade deficits. But since these have been in place for decades, they don’t explain why trade wars are igniting now. To truly understand why trade wars are igniting and spreading, we need to start with financial repression, a catch-all...