Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

11.02.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in January 2019 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the pre-vious year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for clothing and...

01.02.2019 – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous year....

Prospects for French economic growth are looking up, but disruptions to consumption are possible. French GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4, the same pace as in Q3. The details reveal that Q4 exports surged significantly, while household consumption and investment slowed. This left growth for the year at +1.5%, following +2.3% in 2017. The breakdown of GDP data show that household consumption growth...

Swiss watch exports grew by 6.3% in 2018, breaking the CHF21 billion ($21.2 billion) mark. This increase, largely due to Asian markets, is set to continue this year despite uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy. Swiss watchmakers are cautiously optimistic despite global political and economic uncertainty - Click to enlarge Exports to Hong Kong shot up by 19.1% (to CHF3 billion francs) and to China by 11.7% (to...

The balance of risks to growth in the region is still tilted to the downside. The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached. A rebound was already expected in Q4 2018, but at the start of this year there are still few signs of recovery. Flash composite PMI numbers for the region declined by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January, the weakest level since July 2013. New orders and...

The ECB is comfortable with current market expectations for rate hikes. At its latest meeting in December, the ECB turned more cautious, lowering its growth forecasts but showing no sign of panic regarding the loss in euro area economic momentum. Risks were considered as “broadly balanced”, but moving to the downside. Since the December monetary policy meeting, data (PMI and national surveys, industrial production) have...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Economic fundamentals should come back into focus, but politics still a factor. After a year when peripheral countries’ old demons made a reappearance, with, in particular, Italy’s public debt back in the spotlight, the focus should shift to economic fundamentals in 2019. Both the Spanish and Italian economies are set to slow down, although the situation is more serious in Italy. In both countries, the political...

Rome and Brussels reached a compromise on the Italian government’s budget plans last month. But there are plenty of reasons for thinking this will be a challenging year for Italy. After battling for more than two months over a 2019 budget plan defiantly non-compliant with the EU fiscal rules, Rome and Brussels struck a last-minute agreement in December that avoided opening an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). To avoid...