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Home / Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro (page 20)

Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Italy and the EU: a debt-based excessive deficit procedure

European Commission deems Italy’s budget noncompliant with EU rules. This week, the European Commission issued its opinion on Italy’s budget plans. Deeming them noncompliant with the EU’s budgetary rules, it recommended that an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) be opened.Of the options available to the EU, a debt-based EDP would be the most difficult for Italy to deal with, as it would last longer and require Italy to...

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Construction Industry Production, Orders and Turnover Statistics: lncrease in construction production in Switzerland in 3rd quarter 2018

22.11.2018 – Secondary sector production rose by 1.1% in 3rd quarter 2018 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 3.1%. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In comparison with the previous year industrial production grew in July by 3.3%, in August by 1.7%, then fell in September (-0.4%). For the whole of the 3rd quarter 2018 production increased by 1.4%...

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2018: Record exports in October 2018

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

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China hard data for October reveals mixed picture

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt. Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong...

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After May’s divorce deal: the road ahead for Brexit

But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months. Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give...

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Swiss wage index 2018: Real and minimum wages increased by 0.9 percent and 0.5 percent respectively in 2018

16.11.2018 – The social partners signatory to Switzerland’s main collective labour agreements (CLA) agreed a nominal rise in real wages of 0.9% and a nominal rise in minimum wages of 0.5% for 2018. Real wages increased by 0.3% at collective level and by 0.6% at individual level. These are the some of the results of the wage agreements survey carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Wage adjustments in...

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 3nd quarter 2018: 1.2percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 4.4percent

15.11.2018 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.2% between the 3rd quarter 2017 and the 3rd quarter 2018. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.3% to 6.5%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press...

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Italian government sticks to its 2019 deficit plan

The minor concessions continued in the revised plan presented to the European Commission are unlikely to dissuade Brussels from launching sanctions. In a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year. Rome made only minor concessions to Brussels’ demand that it...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in October 2018: +2.3 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

SUMMARY The Euro area’s fiscal stance will turn expansionary in 2019. Among the five biggest economies, this shift mainly reflects significant fiscal loosening in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. France and Spain plan modest fiscal tightening, but less that what the European Commission (EC) demanded. In Italy, the government budget plan represents a significant deviation from the EU’s fiscal rules. The outcome of arm...

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