Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

As expected, last week the European Central Bank hinted at a “moderate” reduction of the bond buying it undertakes as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). But ECB president Christine Lagarde refrained from providing a precise timeline and she was adamant that a reduction in PEPP purchases did not mean the ECB would tighten financing conditions. Indeed, the ECB could well compensate smaller PEPP purchases by beefing up its regular asset...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

The rosy US employment picture helped push equities to a new high as US inflation moderated in July. Those looking to fill roles now exceed those looking for work, compelling some small and mid-sized companies to raise wages. Higher prices seem to be keeping the US consumer in check, however, with consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level in a decade. We will be watching how this evolves given the US consumer’s key to the growth recovery story. The US earnings...

04.08.2021 – The hotel sector registered 11.4 million overnight stays in Switzerland in the first half of 2021, representing an increase of 14.3% (+1.4 million) compared with the same period of 2020. With a total of 9.2 million units, domestic demand rose by 55.3% (+3.3 million). Foreign visitors registered a 45.4% decrease (–1.8 million) with 2.2 million overnight stays. These are the provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). . Download press...

02.08.2021 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in July 2021 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous month is due to several factors including falling prices for clothing and footwear due to seasonal sales. The prices for air transport also...

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income. In the main, however, the message from US banks is that business is good as a strong...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

13.07.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2021 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.7 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, basic metals and semi-finished metal products, scrap and petroleum products saw higher prices. Compared with June 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.9%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In particular, higher prices for...

01.07.2021 – The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in June 2021 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.1 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation was +0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The 0.1% increase compared with the previous month is due to several factors including rising prices for fruiting vegetables. International package holidays also recorded a price...

01.07.2021 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 2.3% in nominal terms in May 2021 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 2.8% in May 2021 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...