Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

03.12.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).The decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays and hotel accommodation. The prices...

02.12.2019 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.7% in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

. After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Domestic demand, particularly household consumption, is expected to remain the main growth...

Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.4% in the 3rd quarter of 2019, after increasing by 0.3% in the previous quarter. Exports of chemical and pharmaceutical products and energy were key contributing factors. In other areas, the impact of the subdued international environment was felt more strongly. The economic slowdown is being borne out on the whole. Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q3 2019(see more posts on Switzerland Gross Domestic Product, ) Source:...

26.11.2019 – The social partners signatory to Switzerland’s main collective labour agreements (CLA) agreed a nominal rise in real wages of 1.1% and a nominal rise in minimum wages of 0.8% for 2019. Real wages increased by 0.5% at collective level and by 0.6% at individual level. These are the some of the results of the wage agreements survey carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). . Download press release: Real and minimum wages increased by 1.1% and...

26.11.2019 – Total employment rose in the third quarter by 1.3% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. At 5.137 million jobs it reached the highest level since the statistics began. In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.1%. The Swiss economy counted 6900 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+9.6%). The employment outlook indicator is indicating a downward trend (-0.2%) and difficulties in...

Our scenario of ongoing global growth moderation and elevated political uncertainties should, we believe, support defensive currencies. We consider a currency ‘defensive’ if it is likely to remain resilient should global risk appetite falter. Among major currencies, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are usually considered as defensive. Indeed, the structural current account surplus and large net foreign assets of both Japan and Switzerland make...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

14.11.2019 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.3% between the 3rd quarter 2018 and the 3rd quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 6.5% to 6.2%. These are some of the results of the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 3rd quarter 2019: 0.3% increase in number of employed...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...