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Home / Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Rising downside risks to euro area growth

While our forecasts remain unchanged for now, external drags on growth prospects for the euro area look set to persist for longer than we had previously expected. A potential improvement in euro area growth in H2 2019 on the back of a revival in the global economy is in jeopardy due to the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China. The euro area is not directly affected, but its indirect exposure to this...

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 1st quarter 2019: 0.8percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition at 4.9percent

16.05.2019 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 1st quarter 2018 and the 1st quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 5.2% to 4.9%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.4% to 6.8%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 1st...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in April 2019: -0.6 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

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French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency

The French government’s respond to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year. Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing. The December package (worth EUR10bn) was incorporated in the stability plan sent to Brussels before Easter and is...

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Switzerland Unemployment in April 2019: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.4percent

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered Unemployment in April 2019 – According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), at the end of April 2019, 107,298 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 5,043 fewer than in the previous month. The unemployment rate fell from 2.5% in March 2019 to 2.4% in the month under review. Compared to the same...

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

03.05.2019 – The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in April 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The 0.2% increase compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for fuel and for air...

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Is Europe turning Japanese?

European investment opportunities remain, despite financial repression in the region. The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised market watchers with its dovish turn in January, wiping out any prospect of an interest-rate rise this year and revising its growth projections for the euro area downward for 2019. With Europeans set to live with interest rates at zero (or negative) for longer, many are wondering if Europe now...

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Swiss Retail Sales, March 2019: -0.5 percent Nominal and -0.2 percent Real

02.05.2019 – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.5% in nominal terms in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.7% in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Real...

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Peripheral bonds after the Spanish election

We remain underweight peripheral euro area bonds in general due to continued political uncertainty, which will feed volatility. On April 28, Spain held its third general election in less than four years. As was expected, the centre-left Socialists (PSOE) emerged the largest party, but it does not have an absolute majority, so negotiations with other parties will be needed. But the political fog in Spain is unlikely to...

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Swiss wage index 2018: Nominal wage increase of 0.5 percent in 2018, real wages decrease by -0.4 percent

30.04.2019 – The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.5% on average in 2018 compared with 2017. It settled at 101.6 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.9%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.4% (100.5 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2018 Source:...

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