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Home / Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Swiss Trade Balance Q4 2019: Secondary sector shows positive growth rates again

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

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Weekly View – Merkel under pressure

. Euro-area growth has hit a slow patch. Following promising signs of having turned a corner, economic data released last week revealed that Q4 growth in the euro area reached its slowest pace since the European debt crisis. German growth was flat for Q4, in line with expectations. As far as Germany’s outlook goes, dark clouds have taken the form of an uncertain political environment and China’s recent weakness. We expect German politics to be even more...

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2020: -1.0 percent YoY, unchanged MoM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4rd quarter 2019: 0.9percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition falls to 3.9percent

13.02.2020 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.9% between the 4th quarter 2018 and the 4th quarter 2019. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined from 4.6% to 3.9%. The EU’s unemployment rate based also decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. These are some of the results of the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press release: 4th quarter 2019: 0.9% increase in number of...

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2020: +0.2 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

10.02.2020 – The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in January 2020 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was +0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for clothing and footwear due to seasonal sales. The prices for...

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Electric cars gain momentum: number of new registrations more than doubled in 2019

31.01.2020 – In 2019, 6 160 300 motor vehicles circulated on Swiss roads. This was 46 500 or 0.8% more than in the previous year. Three quarters of the entire fleet were passenger cars, including an increasing number of electric cars: of the 312 900 cars that were newly registered in 2019, 13 200 or 4.2% were purely battery operated. This meant that new registrations of electric cars increased substantially year-on-year (+143.9%) while the number of petrol-driven...

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2019: -0.4 percent Nominal and 0.1 percent Real

31.01.2020 – Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays fell in the retail sector by 0.4% in nominal terms in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in December 2019 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes...

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Swiss Trade Balance December 2019: Chemistry-pharma propels foreign trade 2019 to new heights

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Read More »

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2019: -1.7 percent YoY, +0.1 percent MoM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015 (see below), compared to -3% in Europe or -1% in...

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House View, January 2020

Asset Allocation Our asset allocation is dominated by a wish to stay diversified in a fragile environment. Continued ‘noise’ around trade is likely to leave markets alternating between disappointment and hope. With this in mind, we have a neutral stance on government bonds and developed-market equities alike, although we still see select opportunities in equities and appreciate the protective function of safe-haven bonds. Geopolitical events such as the tensions...

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