SNB & CHF

There was never really any answer given by the Chinese Communists for why their own export data diverged so much from other import estimates gathered by its largest trading partners. Ostensibly different sides of the same thing, it’s not like anyone asked Xi Jinping to weigh in; they report what numbers they have and consider them authoritative. However, the United States’ Census Bureau’s tallies of China-made goods entering this country used to track very closely...

This week’s episode of the Gold Exchange Podcast explores the idea of profits, and why it matters how you get them. Much of the financial world has confused the idea of profit with price appreciation. Or as we like to say, they confuse investment with speculation. Investment is deploying capital productively in a business for a yield. Speculation is betting one’s capital on an asset price rising. There’s a reason why this confusion exists. Central Banks have...

In assessing the trajectory of Fed policy the market is discounting, we prefer using the Fed funds futures contracts over the Eurodollar futures.  The Fed funds settle at the average effective rate, while the Eurodollar futures contracts are three-month deposit rates.  The Fed funds futures seem to be implying aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, which as of less than a month ago, half of whom did not expect a rate hike would be appropriate next year.  The...

Oil prices are intentionally offered as Inflation Exhibit A, even though at best it is a lagging indicator. In 2008, 2011 and 2018 we saw metal prices turn south while oil kept heading north - incorrectly interpreting the economic setting each time. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "Deadlines" by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Chip...

14.10.2021 – The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2021 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 104.1 points (December 2020 = 100). In particular, basic metals and semi-finished metal products as well as petroleum and natural gas saw higher prices. Compared with September 2020, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 4.5%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In particular,...

China’s high-yield bond crisis continued last week, with yields on the ICE BofA index of Chinese high-yield US dollar bonds moving above 18% at one stage last week, the highest level in a decade. Further nervousness was caused by one real-estate issuer’s decision not to reimburse USD200 mn of offshore bonds–despite having USD4 bn in cash on its balance sheet. This suggests the company in question favours domestic investors and its own cash needs over its offshore...

GESDA’s radar anticipates that in five years advances in artificial intelligence could uncover patterns in brain data that offer new insights into consciousness. Keystone / Salvatore Di Nolfi A Geneva-based foundation has created a tool mapping out major scientific breakthroughs that could help decision makers and civil society prepare for their impact. The digital tool offers an overview of 216 future scientific breakthroughs expected over the next 25 years. Nearly...

One might anticipate that the bottom 50%’s meager share of the nation’s exploding wealth would have increased as smartly as the wealth of the billionaires, but alas, no. America’s economy has changed in ways few of the winners seem to notice, as they’re too busy cheerleading their own brilliance and success. In the view of the winners, who just so happen to occupy all the seats at the media-punditry-Federal Reserve, etc. table–the rising tide of stock, bond and...

The current surge in inflation is not due to a shortage of supply as central banks want us to believe. It is primarily due to soaring consumer demand fueled by monetary creation. Original Article: For central bankers and mainstream analysts the recent inflation outburst is only a transitory phenomenon which has nothing or very little to do with the massive monetary and fiscal stimuli unleashed during the pandemic. Although the Fed has recently conceded that price...