SNB & CHF

31.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Demography and Migration (0353-1603-10) Families and Generations Survey 2013: Relationships Where the heart is: Relationships and marriages popular Neuchâtel, 31.03.2016 (FSO) – More than three quarters of men and women aged between 18 and 80 are in a relationship and most of these live together with their partner. Marriage still remains common with four fifths of all people who live with a partner of the opposite sex being married. These are some of the findings of...

A Salutary Effect BALTIMORE – “Ike and Dick Sure to Click” was an exciting election slogan. Their Democratic opponents, Adlai Stevenson and Estes Kefauver, had their snazzy campaign jingle, too: “Adlai and Estes… They’re the Bestes.” Surely, the men behind these slogans had their private hungers and perversions. But they kept them to themselves. The 1956 presidential election campaign was a dull affair. Google “Adlai Stevenson’s wife,” and you will get only the barest biographical...

  The G-20 and Policy Coordination Readers may recall that the last G20 pow-wow (see “The Gasbag Gabfest” for details) featured an uncharacteristic lack of grandiose announcements, a fact we welcomed with great relief. The previously announced “900 plans” which were supposedly going to create “economic growth” by government decree seemed to have disappeared into the memory hole. These busybodies deciding to do nothing, is obviously the best thing that can possibly happen.   Yuan, weekly –...

Bawerk shows that more than 3 mb/d of American oil production was helped by US$55.5bn in credit facilities, by excessive debt. This production is now at risk and the debt may not be repaid. The big OPEC players are playing against US shale oil and some smaller OPEC members that have higher costs. Another month, another flight to Hamad international airport for 17th April after initial agreement to hold ‘upstream horses’ in February 2016. While it’s no doubt great fun getting back...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the CRB Index, a basket of commodity prices.   The technical picture has deteriorated, and the price action in the coming sessions is particularly important in determining outlook.   The CRB Index put in a double bottom.  On January 20 and February 11 lows were set just below 155.00.   The neckline of the double bottom was created in the rally between the two bottoms.  It is found near 168.00.   The measuring objective is found by...

It is widely recognized that the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen has not lifted Japanese export volumes.  In December 2015, Japanese export volumes had fallen 4.4% year-over-year after rising 3.9% in December 2014 and 2.5% in December 2013.  These are a number of explanations for this counter-intuitive result given the yen's past depreciation.  First, global demand is weak.  Second, has adopted a direct investment strategy rather than an export-orientation.  For example, many of...

The US dollar is mostly lower as the North American session is set to begin.  The holiday in many centers, especially in Europe, has limited activity, and a few orders seemed to drive prices., which remain within the recent ranges.  The Japanese yen is the main exception.  The greenback's gains have been extended into the seventh session, the longest such streak since October.  The dollar neared JPY113.70, its best levels since the FOMC meeting.   However, local press reports denying that...

Gold went down (as the muggles would measure it, in dollars). It dropped almost 40 bucks. Silver fell almost 60 cents. Since silver fell proportionally farther than gold, the gold-silver ratio went up. Why do we keep reiterating that gold goes nowhere, that it’s the dollar which mostly goes down over long periods of time and sometimes up as in 2011-2015? Why do we insist that the dollar be measured in gold, and that gold cannot be measured in dollars the way a steel meter stick cannot be...

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market equity index put in its low on January 20, as did the CRB Index.  The price of oil appeared to bottom then as well, but it retested the lows in mid-February and...

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.   The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k.  It is the smallest gross short position since before Abe was elected in Prime Minister in 2012.  The net long yen speculative position rose to 53.3k contracts.  The record was...