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It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis). You can see it in how everything is framed. When first presented with this “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn early on in 2019 (they ignored all the...

Over the last few months, gold’s performance has been remarkable. Many market observers and mainstream analysts have pointed to various geopolitical developments in their efforts to explain away the bullishness as a reaction to whatever happens to be in the headlines at the time. The Trump impeachment, the US-China trade war, more recently the tensions with Iran, are all among the reasons that have been put forward so far to justify the current gold rush. And yet,...

Risk-off continues in Asia, but moves have been less dramatic European market jittery but stable Implied rates now pricing in a full Fed cut by September The UK will announce its decision on Huawei’s access to the country’s 5G network The dollar is slightly stronger against most major currencies, so DXY continues on its very gradual grind higher. The index is up 1.6% since the start of the year. Of note, the Australian dollar is down 0.3% reaching at 3-month low at...

(© Keystone / Christian Beutler) The company recently won a bid to build and run an airport near India’s capital and has its sights set on other emerging markets in Asia. In November 2019, Zürich Flughafen AG (Zurich Airport) won a 40-year contract to build and operate the planned Noida International Airport in Jewar, located around 80km from the country’s capital, New Delhi. With an investment of CHF650 million ($670 million) expected for the first phase of...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

USD/CHF stays beyond 23.6% Fibonacci retracement but fails to clear a fortnight-long falling trend line. 200-bar SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement add to resistance. USD/CHF pierces 0.9700 by the press time of early Tuesday. The pair have recently been recovering but a downward sloping trend line since January 16 caps immediate upside. Even if the buyers cross 0.9715 resistance line, 200-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its December 24, 20119 to January 16,...

The cost of renting apartments continues to rise in Swiss cities. (© Keystone / Gaetan Bally) Rental prices in Swiss cities became markedly more expensive last year even though vacancy rates are increasing in Switzerland. The latest study from real estate portal Homegate.ch reveals the disparity between urban and rural areas. Zurich saw the biggest leap in rental prices in 2019, rising 3.3% in the year. This compares to a 0.6% average rental hike across the country....

The money supply growth rate rose in December slowed after a November surge of nearly six percent. During December 2019, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 5.53 percent. That’s down from November’s rate of 5.9 percent, but was up from December 2018’s rate of 3.90 percent. The increase in money-supply growth in December continues a sizable reversal of the trend we saw for most of 2019. In August, the growth rate hit a 120-month low, falling to the...

Philip Morris International employs some 3,000 people in Switzerland (Keystone / Laurent Gillieron) Tobacco giant Philip Morris says 265 jobs in Switzerland will be affected by restructuring plans, of which almost two-thirds of posts may be transferred to other European sites. After much uncertainty and news speculation, Philip Morris (PMI) confirmed on Monday its restructuring plans at operational centres in Lausanne and Neuchâtel in French-speaking western...

Global stocks lower on virus fears, yen appreciates, and yield curves flatten Oil prices continue to fall while gold rises Italian assets outperform on favorable election results for ruling coalition German IFO survey disappoints, trimming nascent green shoots The dollar is mixed against DM and broadly stronger against EM. On the former, the yen is outperforming (+0.4%), heading to the sixth day of consecutive appreciation, now back below the ¥109.0 level. AUD and...