Tag Archives: newsletter

Summary Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with the start of the tightening cycle. The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor. Israeli central bank said it won’t hike rates until Q2 2018. Both S&P and Fitch cut South Africa’s rating one notch to sub-investment grade BB+. Moody’s put South Africa’s Baa2 rating on review for a downgrade S&P upgraded Argentina one notch to B with stable outlook....

– Gold silver oil spike after U.S. bombs Syria– Gold and silver spike 1% as oil rises 1.4% – Gold breaks 200 day moving average, 4th week of gains– Stocks fall after U.S. strikes in Syria rattle markets – U.S. missiles hit airbase; Lavrov says no Russian casualties; Russia deploys cruise missile frigate to Syria – Russia denounces ‘aggression’ & warns of ‘considerable damage’ U.S. ties– “Aggression against a...

As world “leaders” gathered in Davos in January 2016, they did so among financial turmoil that was creating more economic havoc than at any time since the Great “Recession.” Having seen especially US QE as the equivalent of money printing, their focus was drawn elsewhere to at least attempt an explanation for the contradiction. They initially settled on the Fed’s rate hike, where terminating “ultra-loose” policies was...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in March 2017 – According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 152,280 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment services centers (RAV) at the end of March 2017, 7,529 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.6% in February 2017 to 3.4% in the reporting month.  Switzerland...

The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in March 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, March 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Consumer Price Index, ) Source: investing.com - Click to...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Orders of Preference Last week, we discussed the growing stress in the credit markets. We noted this is a reason to buy gold, and likely the reason why gold buying has ticked up since just before Christmas. Many people live in countries where another paper scrip is declared to be money — to picture the absurdity, just...

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week.  The rebound in oil helped some, such as COP, RUB, and MXN.  On the other hand, idiosyncratic political risks weighed on South Africa.   This week could pose a challenge to EM, with lots of Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, and US jobs data. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, March 29 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Thailand Thailand reports March CPI Monday, which is...

Personal Income growth in February 2017 was more mixed than it had been of recent months. Nominal Disposable Per Capita Income increased 3.73% year-over-year, while in real terms Per Capita Income was up 1.57%. For the former, that was among the better monthly results over the past year, while the latter was near the worst. The difference is still calculated inflation, where the rising oil component of every deflator...

Summary: MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance. This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index.   In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline...