Tag Archives: newsletter

Extracting Meaning from PPP “An alternative exchange rate – the purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factor – is preferred because it reflects differences in price levels for both tradable and non-tradable goods and services and therefore provides a more meaningful comparison of real output.” – the World Bank Headquarters of the World Bank in Washington. - Click to enlarge We have it on good authority that the...

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015. Two aspects of today’s report are worth mentioning. First, on the expenditure...

There was a broad-based setback in euro area business surveys in February, whether in terms of country or of sector. The Flash composite PMI slipped to 57.5 in February from 58.8 in January. The month-to-month dip was the biggest since 2014. National business surveys painted a similar picture. In Germany, the Ifo business climate index dropped by 2.2 points to 115.4 in February, from an all-time high of 117.6 in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.29% to 1.1517 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The capital markets seem unusually subdued. The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer, except against the euro and Swiss franc among the majors. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed to eke out a small gain (0.2%), for a third advancing...

Barry Callebaut released the all new Ruby chocolate flavour last year (Barry Callebaut) - Click to enlarge Despite a decline in domestic consumption, sales of Swiss chocolate grew by 3.1% in 2017 thanks to foreign demand. On Thursday, the Federation of Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers (Chocosuisse) reported total sales of CHF1.85 billion ($1.98 billion) for the year. The volume of chocolate sold also increased...

. Switzerland continues to attract large volumes of cross-border workers, notably in the Lake Geneva region and around the city of Basel. At the end of last year, 318,002 people were crossing the border each day to work in Switzerland, according to data published by the Federal Statistics Officeexternal link on Friday. This is an increase of 1.7% compared with December 2016. As in previous years, the Lake Geneva region...

While many national governments, such as the US and UK, regularly spend more than they collect, Switzerland managed a CHF 2.8 billion surplus in 2017. In addition, CHF 2 billion of withholding tax is expected, which would push the surplus up to CHF 4.8 billion. © Jean-michel Feinen | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Most of the CHF 71 billion collected came from VAT (29%) and federal income tax (32%). Other big...

Ridiculous Minutia Jerome Powell, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, just completed his third week on the job.  He’s hardly had enough time to learn how to operate the office coffee maker, let alone the all-in-one printer.  He still doesn’t know what roach coach menu items induce a heinous gut bomb. Photo credit: A. Brandon / AP - Click to enlarge The perpetually slightly worried looking new Fed chairman...

There are three distinct classes of drivers in the week ahead. The first is high frequency data. The most important of the economic reports include the preliminary estimate of the February inflation in the euro area, the US January income, and consumption data alongside the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, and Japanese retail sales and industrial production figures. The second group of drivers...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note and capped off a soft week overall. Best performers last week were ZAR, CLP, and PHP while the worst were TRY, ARS, and IDR. Fed Chief Powell’s testimony to Congress will likely draw market attention back to Fed policy. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, February 21 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Singapore Singapore reports January IP and is expected to...