Tag Archives: newsletter

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.02% to 1.1544 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The economic data stream is picking up, but there is an uneasy calm in the markets. It is almost as if the dramatic drop in stocks has left many with a sense of incompleteness, like waiting for another shoe to drop. The price action has...

Summary: S&P 500 stalled near 61.8% retracement of decline. Dow Jones Stoxx 600 stopped at 38.2% retracement. U.S. corporate earnings growth has been much more impressive than that of Europe. The different performance does not appear to be a function of FX rates. Today is an important day for equities. After a sharp sell-off earlier this month, stocks staged a recovery last week. The recovery has stalled...

- Click to enlarge In large gatherings of people, from airplanes to theater to conferences, we are often told to know the closest exit. The same is true for investing. No matter one’s confidence when they buy a security, someone is just as convinced on the other side who is selling the security. Well into this 4.5-minute interview (click here for the link) on Bloomberg’s “What’d You Miss” show, Lisa Abramowicz...

On 4 March 2018, voters in Vaud will vote on a plan to provide basic universal dental care funded by a tax on salaries. - Click to enlarge The initiative entitled: Reimbursement of dental care, Pour le remboursement des soins dentaires in French, claims that 10% of the population avoid the dentist because of the cost. They also claim links between poor dental health and cancer, diabetes and premature births. Their...

ICO's have been fuelled particularly by bitcoins (Keystone) - Click to enlarge The Swiss financial watchdog has published guidelines on digital currency fundraisers – known as initial coin offerings – under which it will regulate some ICOs, either under anti-money laundering laws or as securities. The Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) says the guidelines “also define the information FINMA...

US-China Trade War Escalates As Further Measures Are Taken – Trade war between two superpowers continues to escalate– White House likely to impose steep tariffs on aluminium and steel imports on ‘national security grounds’– US may impose global tariff of at least 24% on imports of steel and 7.7% on aluminium– China “will certainly take necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights.”– China is USA’s largest...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Stock Markets EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, February 14. Thailand Thailand reports Q4 GDP Monday, with growth...

The US markets are closed on Monday, and many parts of Asia will continue to celebrate the Lunar New Year. The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. To help navigate the challenging investment climate, we identify four “numbers” that can illuminate the path ahead. The equity market is center...

Tickets cannot be bought on public transport in Switzerland. Passengers are required to have a ticket before boarding. Those caught on public transport without one will soon have their names put into a national register. This will ensure progressively higher fines are issued to repeat offenders. ©_SBB_CFF_FFS - Click to enlarge The new database will be rolled out from April 2019, reported RTS. By the end of 2019, the...