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Beneath the surface of modern maps, numerous old fault lines still exist. A political earthquake or two might reveal the fractures for all to see. Correspondent Mark G. and I have long discussed the potential relevancy of old boundaries, alliances and structures in Europe’s future alignments.Examples include the Holy Roman Empire and the Hanseatic League, among others. In the long view, Europe has cycled between periods...

Federal Reserve revisions to the Consumer Credit series have created some discontinuities in the data. Changes were applied cumulatively to December 2015 alone, rather than revising downward the whole data series prior to that month. The Fed therefore estimates $3.531 trillion in outstanding consumer credit (seasonally-adjusted) in November 2015, and then just $3.417 trillion the following month. Of that $114.3 billion...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation. The Swiss PPI values of -6% in 2015...

Fewer people are moving to Switzerland from elsewhere in Europe. Between January and September this year, immigration from European Union states was down by 26%, compared to the same period last year. (RTS/swissinfo.chexternal link) For example, according to Swiss Public Television, RTS, 7,891 Portuguese arrived in Switzerland while 7,912 left, citing various reasons for their departure. Some said it was too expensive...

Stock Markets EM FX closed the week on a soft note.  For the week as a whole, best performers were MYR, PLN, and COP, while the worst were BRL, ZAR, and INR.  US inflation and retail sales data will likely set the tone for EM.  Also, the US fiscal debate is set to continue this week, so expect lots of choppy trading across many markets. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, November 13 Source: economist.com - Click to...

There seems to be a broad consensus on the trajectory of policy in the remaining weeks of the year. Barring a major shock or surprise the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month. The ECB’s course is set until at least the middle of next year when the current policy will begin to be debated in earnest. The BOJ’s Kuroda has made it clear that the BOJ will continue to pursue Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) and...

A doctor looks at an X-ray of a torso with her patient Just over 20% of Swiss residents decided not to see a doctor last year for medical treatment due to the high costs, according to a new report. This is one of the findings of the Health at a Glance 2017 report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Friday. The share of the population foregoing a doctor’s consultation due to...

– Gold coins and bars saw demand rise 17% to 222t in Q3, driven largely by China – Chinese investors bought price dips, notching up fourth consecutive quarter of growth– Jewellery, ETF demand fell while gold coins and bars saw increased demand – Central banks bought a robust 111t of gold bullion bars (+25% y-o-y) – Russia, Turkey & Kazakhstan account for 90% of 111t of central bank demand – Turkey increased gold...

Daniel M. (standing) at the trial. A Swiss man on trial in Frankfurt has been found guilty of spying on the tax authorities of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). ‘Daniel M.’ was handed a suspended sentence of 22 months and a fine of €40,000 (CHF46,600). The verdict brings to a premature end the twists and turns of a case that brought scrutiny on Swiss-German diplomatic relations since the arrest of the...

Big Crunch or Big Chill Physicists say that the universe is expanding. However, they hotly debate (OK, pun intended as a foreshadowing device) if the rate of expansion is sufficient to overcome gravity—called escape velocity. It may seem like an arcane topic, but the consequences are dire either way. If the rate of expansion is too low, then it will get slower and slower until expansion stops entirely, then finally,...