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See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Rumors Driving Short Term Price Swings The prices of the metals dropped a bit more this week, -$7 and -$0.16. We all know the dollar is going down, that it is the stated policy of the Federal Reserve to make it go down. We all know that gold has been valued for thousands of years. So why do we measure the timeless metal...

The increasing volatility of SNB Earnings Annual results are not really definite. Given that the SNB accumulates foreign currencies with interventions, they have huge swings. But in 2017, the picture is changed. Assuming a “biblical” cycle of seven good years and seven bad years, the SNB could now increase profits every year – thanks to a weaker franc and the seven good years. … until the next recession comes and the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.41% to 1.628 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6%...

© Blondsteve | Dreamstime As next year’s health premium bills find their way into Swiss mail or email boxes, the reality of another round of price increases starts to bite. Earlier this week, Switzerland’s Federal Council unveiled 38 measures that will be considered as part of a plan to tackle Switzerland’s rising health costs. A final plan will be presented next spring, according to 20 Minutes. A number of measures,...

– Gold will be safe haven again in looming EU crisis – EU crisis is no longer  just about debt but about political discontent– EU officials refuse to acknowledge changing face of politics across the union– Catalonia shows measures governments will use to maintain control– EU currently holds control over banks accounts and ability to use cash– Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial threat from...

Economic growth is subject to gradation. There is almost no purpose in making such a declaration, for anyone with common sense knows intuitively that there is a difference between robust growth and just positive numbers. Yet, the biggest mistake economists and policymakers made in 2014 was to forget that differences exist between even statistics all residing on the plus side. It was misconception sometimes by design,...

The KOF Economic Barometer rose by 3.0 points in October. This is the second upward movement in succession. The indicator reached 109.1 points in October (after revised 106.1 in September). Autumn is welcoming the Swiss economy with a tailwind. In October 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose to a new reading of 109.1 points, its highest level since September 2010. The upward tendency is mainly driven by the...

Stock Markets EM FX gained some limited traction Friday but still capped off another awful week.  So far this quarter, the worst EM performers are TRY (-6%), MXN (-5%), ZAR (-4%), COP, and BRL (both -2.5%). We expect these currencies to remain under pressure as political concerns are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, October 30 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge South...

Summary Busiest week of Q4. Fed, BOJ, and BOE, only the last is expected to change policy. Flash EMU CPI and US jobs. Positive developments in Italy, less so in Spain. The week ahead will be among the busiest in Q4. In this note, we provide a brief sketch of the different events and data points that will shape the investment climate. Given the importance of initial conditions, we will begin with an overview of the...

The focus in Europe has been Catalonia’s push for independence and the attempt by Madrid to prevent it. Tomorrow’s ECB meeting, where more details about next year’s asset purchases, is also awaited. There are three developments that we suspect have been overshadowed but are still instructive. First, the ECB reported that its balance sheet shrank last week. With the ECB set to take another baby step toward the exit, many...