Tag Archives: FX Trends

Summary: Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues. United States The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even...

Swiss Franc Currency Index The Swiss Franc Index has lost 1% over the course of the last month, while the dollar index improved by 2%. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, January 07(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge   Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is the trade-weighted currency performance (see the currency basket)On a three years...

United States The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area. The Canadian dollar is struggle to sustain it upward momentum. A US dollar...

Marc Chandler Source: cnbc.com - Click to enlarge Two central banks were particularly active today.  Chinese officials appear to be engineering short squeeze that has lifted the yuan 1.2% over the past two sessions. While this does not sound like much, it is a record two-day move, for the still closely managed currency. In addition to formal and informal capital controls, Chinese officials have reportedly used moral...

  Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBP/CHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the...

Summary ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM lend credence to our fear of a disappointing national jobs report. Economists estimate only a small part of the manufacturing jobs loss can be traced to trade policy. 19 states increased min wage at the start of the year, but the impact on the nation’s average weekly earnings will likely be too small to detect. We have suggested the risk of disappointment with the US...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 05(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge The Swiss Franc has limited data releases to note for the upcoming weeks therefore I expect news from the Brexit story and UK economic data to influence exchange rates this month. At present we are awaiting the decision from the Supreme Court in regards to if UK Prime Minister Theresa May needs to seek Government...

As tumultuous as last year was from a global political perspective on the back of a rocky start market-wise, 2017 will be much more so. The central bank subsidization of the financial system (especially in the US and Europe) that began with the Fed invoking zero interest rate policy in 2008, gave way to international distrust of the enabling status quo that unfolded in different ways across the planet. My prognosis is...

If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017’s ‘known unknowns’ suggest a year of more mayhem awaits… Here’s a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg’s quick-takes on each). January Donald Trump will be sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20.QuickTakes: Immigration Reform, Free Trade and Its Foes, Supreme Court, Oil Sands, Confronting Coal, Climate Change,...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 04(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF rates have jumped during the first official day of trading in 2017, with the pair hitting 1.2657 at today’s high. The Pound gained support this morning following positive UK Manufacturing data, which came in well above market expectation. This increased market confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has...