Tag Archives: Featured

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.10 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: News that Saudi Arabia was able to restore 40%-50% of the oil capacity lost by the weekend strike coupled with the Fed’s efforts to offset the squeeze in the money markets are allowing the global capital markets to trade quietly ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Equities...

USD/CHF takes the bids inside a six-week-old rising wedge bearish formation. 200-DMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement could restrict immediate upside. 0.9880 becomes the key support. Despite the recent rise, USD/CHF trades below the confluence of 200-day simple moving average (DMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August declines, close to 0.9940, while heading into the European session on Wednesday. Even if the pair manages to overcome 0.9950 immediate resistance...

Noch vor wenigen Wochen galt es am Markt bereits mehrheitlich als ausgemacht, dass die Schweizerische Nationalbank am Donnerstag den Leitzins von minus 0,75 Prozent auf minus 1 Prozent weiter absenken wird. Ich konnte die Marktmeinung nie nachvollziehen. Der Wind hat nun tatsächlich gedreht. Eine weitere Absenkung der Zinsen scheint nun so gut wie ausgeschlossen. Wie kam es dazu? Schon vor dem Zinsentscheid der Europäischen Zentralbank vom letzten Donnerstag liess...

◆ Why central banks including China and Russia will keep buying gold due to concerns about the outlook for currencies, including the dollar and the euro, Mark O’Byrne, Research Director of GoldCore told Marketwatch ◆ While the gold tonnage demand from central banks in recent months has been significant and near records, gold remains a tiny fraction of most central banks’ massive foreign-exchange reserves,” O’Byrne says, adding that the trend is “sustainable and...

Oil prices have spiked after the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities.  Will it impact the Fed tomorrow?  No.  We compare the current (but still unfolding) situation to past oil shocks from the 1970s and discuss the policy responses taken. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continues to reverberate.  The drone strike removed about 5% of global supplies from the market, leading Brent oil to spike to $72 per barrel Monday before falling...

Before the Great “Recession” ended the business cycle as we once knew it, there was a widely accepted concept known as stall speed. In the US, if GDP growth decelerated down to around 2% it suggested the system had reached a danger zone of sorts. In a such a weakened state, one good push, or shock, could send the economy plunging into recession. Any economy which might slow down into a weakened state for whatever reasons becomes susceptible. What might be a minor,...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.60% to 1.0984 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Oil prices have stabilized after yesterday’s surge. Both Brent and WTI are holding on to around $7-$8 a barrel gain. Equity markets are mixed. Some are attributing the losses in Asia Pacific outside of Japan (Nikkei rose its highest level since late April), Korea and Australia to...

The SNB meeting is on Thursday The Swiss National Bank needs to respond to the strong currency and lower rates from the ECB, according to Morgan Stanley. The consensus for Thursday’s meeting is no change from -0.75% but Morgan Stanley and UBS are two firms that are forecasting a surprise 25 bps cut. “What’s motivating the SNB to ease policy is inflation,” economists write in a note today. “It’s low and uncomfortably close to zero, despite loose monetary policy and a...

This week, the prices of the metals fell further, with gold -$18 and silver -$0.73. On May 28, the price of silver hit its nadir, of $14.30. From the last three days of May through Sep 4, the price rose to $19.65. This was a gain of $5.35, or +37%. Congratulations to everyone who bought silver on May 28 and who sold it on Sep 4. To those who believe gold and silver are money (as we do) the rising price of silver may seem right as rain. Why shouldn’t the dollar go...

This week the BoJ will hold its regular policy meeting. Global uncertainty, linked to the trade war and Brexit, has strengthened the value of the Swiss franc and Yen. CHF/JPY is struggling to maintain the upside as the Yen picks up a safe haven bid, anchored on geopolitical developments following a textbook risk-off response in global financial markets following the strike on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities over the weekend. Both the CHF and Yen picked up a bid as...