A Pleasant Surprise You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And yet, this is exactly what a recent comprehensive scientific study asserts – a study that probably considers a longer time span than most: it examines up to 217 years of...
Read More »FX Daily, July 22: Greenback is Mostly Firmer to Start New Week, while the Euro is Pinned near $1.12
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% at 1.1007 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: What promises to be an eventful two weeks has begun quietly. The ECB, Fed, BOJ, and BOE will meet over the next fortnight. The central banks of Turkey and Russia meet this week and are expected to cut rates. The UK will have a new...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Highlights in the Week Ahead
Three events that will capture the market’s attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa. Japan goes to the polls on July 21 to elect the upper chamber of the Diet. There...
Read More »Hildebrand hatte SNB nicht verstanden: Sie muss zugunsten eigener Wirtschaft investieren
Bilderberg, Gerzensee und „Franken-Rütli“ – das sind alles Geschwister im Geiste: undurchschaubar, informell, nicht greifbar, gegen aussen, eine Versammlung der Macht, mit dem Vorspuren von Entscheiden grösster wirtschaftlicher und politischer Tragweite. Das Volk bleibt aussen vor. Es wird aber am Schluss allfällige Konsequenzen tragen müssen. Solche geheimen Konferenzen passen nicht in eine moderne Demokratie. Schon...
Read More »Our Ruling Elites Have No Idea How Much We Want to See Them All in Prison Jumpsuits
Even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they’re not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%. Let’s posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Turning, a 4-generational cycle of 80 years that correlates rather neatly with the Great Crises of the past: 1781 (Revolutionary War, constitutional crisis); 1861 (Civil War) and 1941...
Read More »Switzerland could lose billions in global corporate tax reform push
Novartis only generated 2% of its revenue in Switzerland but paid 39% of its tax bill there. Switzerland stands to lose up to CHF10 billion ($10.2 billion) as a consequence of attempts by other countries to change how multinationals are taxed. Countries belonging to the G20 and OECDexternal link are pushing for changes in corporate taxation rules to capture a larger share of taxes of multinationals based in tax-friendly...
Read More »Rents have risen in Switzerland’s main cities, according to rental website
Paradeplatz Zurich_© Denis Linine _ Dreamstime.com The website homegate.ch has compiled data on rental prices in Zurich, Basel, Bern and Geneva over the last two years. The data shows how rents have risen in these cities and presents them on maps showing prices rises by suburb in each of these cities. The data presents rental prices for a 70 square metre three-room apartment. The most expense location in Switzerland is...
Read More »Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet
It’s been a slow turnin’ From the inside out A slow turnin’ But you come about Slow learnin’ But you learn to sway A slow turnin’ baby Not fade away Now I’m in my car I got the radio on I’m yellin’ at the kids in the back ‘Cause they’re bangin’ like Charlie Watts Slow Turning by John Hiatt “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways”, Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” The Sun Also Rises, By Ernest...
Read More »Globally Synchronized, After All
For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered. More and more, though, it appears at least elsewhere that the track was bothered. Whether China, Singapore, or...
Read More »Retirement age to rise for women in Switzerland
© motortion | Dreamstime.com The Swiss government has been looking at measures to shore up the finances of Switzerland’s pension system for some time. The difference between the official retirement age for women (64) and men (65) is an obvious target. Recently, the Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive, said it would include increasing the retirement age of women from 64 to 65 in a package of reforms aimed at...
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