Tag Archives: Featured

We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings. Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy. Previous quarters were revised down and now show that Switzerland was in a technical...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0933 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The momentum from the end of last week carried into yesterday’s activity, but the momentum began fading. Today, equities were mixed in Asia Pacific and weaker in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 reversed lower yesterday and is slipped further today. The S&P 500 may gap lower at...

Germany has recently joined Switzerland in the dubious All Negative Club. The interest rate on every government bond, from short to 30 years, is now negative. Many would say “congratulations”, in the belief that this proves their credit risk is … well … umm … negative(?) And anyways, it will let them borrow more to spend on consumption which will stimulate … umm… well… all of the wasteful consumption for which governments are rightly infamous. While those who are...

USD/CHF clings to 0.9890 after unemployment data. A four-day-old symmetrical triangle limits the pair’s near-term moves. 200-HMA adds to the support while 0.9920 limits the upside. USD/CHF remains largely unchanged after the headline job data as it trades near 0.9890 ahead of Monday’s European session open. August month seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate for Switzerland matches 2.3% forecast and prior. Hence, the pair is more likely to continue within immediate...

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s more to come. As Bloomberg reported late last week: Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.52% to 1.0944 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The improvement of investor sentiment seen last week is carrying over into the start of the new weeks. Global equities are firm as are benchmark yields. Asia Pacific equities advanced, except in Hong Kong, where Chief Executive Lam’s promise to formally withdraw the controversial...

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that. Italy has a new government, but a prolonged honeymoon is unlikely for this unlikely union. Face-to-face talks between the US and China are better than no talks but hardly indicates an end to...

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.  China reports August money and loan data this week but no data has been set.  With the recently announced cuts in...

. SNBs Jordan on the wires The Swiss national banks Jordan is on the wires saying: He cannot say how long negative interest rates will last Negative rates are necessary for now Interest rate spreads like important role for exchange rates The USDCHF is trading higher today. It currently trades at 0.9861. The 100 hour moving average stalled the rally at 0.98737 today. The 200 hour moving average at 0.98479 was rebroken to the upside earlier. That is now support....

If these three charts reflect a “normal” “healthy” Bull market, then why are they so uncommon? The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look “normal” to you? Let’s take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver. In other words, let’s...