Tag Archives: Featured

Trade between Asia and Europe has dimmed considerably. We know that from the fact Germany and China are the two countries out of the majors struggling the most right now. As a consequence of the slowing, shipping companies have had to make adjustments to their fleet schedules over and above normal seasonal variances. It was reported last week that Maersk and MPC would “temporarily suspend” their sailings on one of the biggest routes between Europe and Asia. Weakening...

Finally, finally the global bond market stopped going in a straight line. I write often how nothing ever does, but for almost three-quarters of a year the guts of the financial system seemed highly motivated to prove me wrong. Yields plummeted and eurodollar futures prices soared. It is only over the past few weeks that rates have backed up in what has been the first real selloff since last year. Is this a meaningful change?   It may seem that way in certain places....

The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continue to reverberate across global markets The currencies of the oil producing nations are likely to outperform near-term US rates continue to adjust ahead of the FOMC UK Prime Minister Johnson is in Luxembourg today to meet with EC President Juncker China reported weak August IP and retail sales . The dollar is mixed against the majors as markets continue to digest the attack on Saudi oil facilities.  Yen and Loonie are...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0942 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Oil prices surged in the initial reaction to the unprecedented drone attack on Saudi Arabia facilities. Saudi Arabia may be able to restore around half of the lost production in a few days. Saudi Arabia and other countries, including the US, prepared to tap strategic reserves, oil...

The prospect of a third trade truce between the US and China helped underpin the optimism that extended the rally in equities. Bond yields continued to back-up after dropping precipitously in August, led by a more than 30 bp increase in the US yield benchmark. The Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive week, something it had not done this quarter. United States The Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 18 is the most important calendar event in the week...

What was “possible” yesterday is now a low-cost proven capability, and the consequences are far from predictable. Predictably, the mainstream media is serving up heaping portions of reassurances that the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities are no big deal and full production will resume shortly. The obvious goal is to placate global markets fearful of an energy disruption that could tip a precarious global economy into recession. The real impact isn’t on...

Doing more of what’s failed for ten years will finally fail spectacularly.. It was a huge relief to see the charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the U.S. retail sector ETF (RTH): both have soared to the moon, signaling that both the U.S. and global economies are booming: the BDI is widely regarded as a proxy for global shipping, which is a proxy for global trade and economic activity. Batic Dry Index, 2018-2019 - Click to enlarge Amazon is 18% of the RTH...

EUR/JPY rallies hard following hawkish ECB cut and trade war optimism.  EUR/JPY tracking positive sentiment in financial and commodity markets.  While the trade war tensions seem to be easing, with stocks climbing and risk appetite returning in droves to financial and commodity markets, EUR/JPY is up 0.79% on the US session so far following what has been perceived as a hawkish rate cut from the European Central Bank earlier today. EUR/JPY is currently trading at...

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah. Here is a clip of part of our discussion.  I make two points. The first is about the euro’s price action. What impressed me about it was that the euro posted an outside up day, trading on both sides of the previous day’s range and closing above its high. When Sri and I were talking early in the Asian morning, there...

US-China relations appear to be thawing Trading was volatile after the ECB decision; we are still dollar bulls EM has benefitted from the shift in the global backdrop this week The US data highlight is August retail sales Vietnam cut rates 25 bp to 6.0%; Turkey reported July current account and IP The dollar is mostly softer against the majors ahead of the US retail sales data. Sterling and Swissie are outperforming, while Kiwi and Loonie are underperforming. EM...