Tag Archives: Featured

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on its highs.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is snapping a two-day losing streak with a 0.5% gain. The Australian dollar is often perceived be influenced by developments in China.  China’s disappointing industrial output figures (6.0% from 6.8% in March and...

EM ended last week on a soft note, and that weakness seems likely to carry over into this week.  Dollar sentiment turned more positive after firm retail sales data on Friday, though US rates markets have yet to reflect any increase in Fed tightening expectations.  Over the weekend, China reported weaker than expected April IP, retail sales, and fixed asset investment.  This continues a string of weak data for the month, and will undercut notions that the world’s second largest economy is...

The US dollar extended its recovery that began on May 3.  Its technical condition remains constructive, even though up until now, the gains are still consistent with a modest correction rather than a trend reversal.   The details of the employment report, if not the headline, coupled with the 1.3% increase in retail sales, have boosted confidence that the US economy is rebounding in Q2 after a six-month slow patch.   The average of the Atlanta Fed (2.8%) and NY Fed GDP trackers (1.2%) is...

The US dollar staged an impressive reversal against many of the major foreign currencies on May 3. In the following week, speculators in the currency futures market made significant adjustment in their holdings. We identified a change in the gross position in the currency futures of 10k contracts or more to be significant.  In the week ending May 3, there were two such adjustments. In the CFTC reporting period ending May 10, there six of the 16 gross position we track surpassed the 10k...

The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance over the period), helped the Norwegian krone turn in a steady performance.  The Canadian dollar's 0.2% decline put it in second place.   With the strongest rise in US retail sales in a year, prompting the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker to rise to 2.8% for Q2, many observers are...

On April 28, the catalyst the sent the stock price of AAPL to its post-August 25 frash crash lows, and launched a tremor not only within the Nasdaq but the broader market, was news that after several years of being AAPL’s biggest cheerleader, even coming up with price targets north of $200, Carl Icahn had suddenly cooled on the China-focused growth company, and had liquidated his entire stake. But as Icahn was selling, or just before as we don’t know precisely when Icahn, who has since...

  They Will Never Get It… Gold wants to know what it has done now… Photo credit: Ajay Verma / Reuters We and many others have made a valiant effort over the years to explain what actually moves the gold market (as examples see e.g. our  article “Misconceptions About Gold”, or Robert Blumen’s excellent essay “Misunderstanding Gold Demand”).  Sometimes it is a bit frustrating when we realize it has probably all been for naught. This was brought home to us again in a recent missive posted...

  Deluded Central Planners BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda Photo credit: Toru Hanai / Reuters Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”....

  Hazards and Benefits Hazard of the dispassionate observer: the rictus of disbelief will get etched in one’s face. Rubbernecking at the economic train wreck of central planners is not without hazard.  A strained collar and dry eyes, for instance, are common perils.  So, too, is the lasting grimace of disbelief that comes with the roll-out of each zany scheme to save us from ourselves. Etched forehead lines and nighttime bruxism are several of the secondary effects.  Not owning shares...

Trump Is Right PARIS – On Wednesday, brick-and-mortar retailers – such as Macy’s – led U.S. stocks lower. The Dow lost about as much as it had gained the day before. Nothing much to talk about there… Macy’s Inc. NYSE + BATS Macy’s on the way to Zool. Macy’s Inc. NYSE + BATS – click to enlarge. When we left off yesterday, we posed two questions: Shouldn’t your editor (under torture, of course) confess his sins, renounce his apostasy, and register to vote before it is too late? And…...