Tag Archives: Featured

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg shows the price of gold over the last six months.  The price peaked a month ago near $1285.  It seems a distribution top is being formed. Specifically, it looks like a potential head and shoulders top.  The left shoulder was formed by the spike on February 11, which also marked the bottom of many equity markets.  The head was formed in the first half of March.  The right shoulder was put set earlier this week. To be sure, the neckline has...

After initially extending its recent recovery gains against the major currencies, the US dollar began consolidating in the European morning.  An unexpected shift by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, replacing a modest and gradual currency appreciation with a more neutral stance, coupled with softer oil prices and weaker European equities, appears to have weighed on emerging market currencies. Asian equities extended their rally, with the Nikkei gaining 3.25% and the Shanghai Composite...

Recently, I wrote to argue against the populist idea that the Federal Reserve prints money. I say populist because it’s not supported by economic or banking theory, and it is not accurate in describing Fed practice in the market. It used to stir up emotion against the Fed. The Fed causes a lot of harm, but we should stick to the facts. I argued that the Fed does not print; it borrows. I illustrated this point with a series of examples of borrowing, starting with a homeowner who takes a...

14.04.2016 09:15  - FSO, Prices (0353-1603-80) Producer and Import Price Index in March 2016 The Producer and Import Price Index remains stable overall Neuchâtel, 14.04.2016 (FSO) – The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in March 2016 compared with the previous month at 99.0 points (base December 2015 = 100). Whereas the Producer Price Index increased by 0.1%, the Import Price Index remained unchanged on average. Compared with March 2015, the price level of the whole range...

The weekend meeting between many OPEC and non-OPEC producers has helped spur the recent gains in the price of oil.  We are concerned that market may be getting ahead of itself. First, the freeze in output that had previously been agreed by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and a few other countries was conditional on participation by Iran.  We have consistently been suspicious of this condition.  Iran has sacrificed or at least delayed its nuclear development in exchange for the lifting of the...

  Economic and Demographic Changes We have discussed China’s debt and malinvestment problems in these pages extensively in the past (most recently we have looked at various efforts to keep the yuan propped up). In a way, China is like the proverbial “watched pot” that never boils though. Its problems are all well known, and we have little doubt that they will increasingly find expression. China’s credit bubble is one of the many dangers hanging over the global economy’s head, so to speak....

Our Argentine “Ranch Rebellion” Is Over… for Now… Mauricio Macri shortly after his election – indicating that he actually has a plan. Photo credit: Enrique Marcarian / Reuters BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – Not much action on Wall Street yesterday. The Dow sold off slightly. Gold and oil were up a bit. How about here in Argentina? “Everything has changed. Everything.” One of the analysts in our Buenos Aires office explained how the recent election of business mogul Mauricio Macri as...

The decentralized nature of the Federal Reserve lends itself to both a division of labor and competitive analysis.  Some Federal Reserve branches have alternative inflation measures and trade-weighted indices of the dollar.  On the whole, this seems beneficial for investors and policymakers. One tool developed by the Atlanta Fed has been widely embraced.  It is a tracking measure for US GDP using real-time data.  Yesterday the New York Fed announced that it had created its own GDP...

The US dollar is well bid in the Europe and is poised to start the North American session with the wind to its back.  Despite firmer equity and industrial metal prices, most emerging market currencies are also succumbing to the rebounding greenback. The euro has yet to convincingly breakout of the range that has confined it this month.  That would require a break of the $1.1300 area.  However, as we have noted the two-year interest rate differential between the US and Germany, which does...

This free portfolio is offered to help investors understand that what they may have learnt about risk and return do not correspond to the realities of investing today. COMMENTS ON THE PORTFOLIO Unfortunately Sketchers (SKX), which lost more than 12% has not yet bottomed out. There is a theory, which says that the market is always right, but I believe that the market is always wrong. SKX’s data indicates the latter: Q1 EPS Forecast Q2 EPS Forecast Current Year Forecast Next Year...