Since the beginning of the year, many asset classes have recorded negative or only marginally positive returns. Where do we go from here?Christophe Donay, Chief Strategist, Head of Asset Allocation & Macro Research, Pictet Wealth ManagementSince the beginning of the year, depending on currency, many asset classes have recorded negative or only marginally positive returns. In US dollar terms, US and global equity indices (MSCI World) have produced total returns of below 0.5% since 1...
Read More »House View, May 2018
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes. Asset Allocation In spite of a certain loss of momentum in positive surprises, a strong Q1 earnings season continues to justify our bullish stance on equities in most regions. We reiterate our negative view on core government bonds and remain short duration. Volatility is still higher than last year, and has increased noticeably in...
Read More »House View, May 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationIn spite of a certain loss of momentum in positive surprises, a strong Q1 earnings season continues to justify our bullish stance on equities in most regions. We reiterate our negative view on core government bonds and remain short duration.Volatility is still higher than last year, and has increased noticeably in the bond market once again. We have been taking measures to calibrate our...
Read More »House View, April 2018
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes. Asset Allocation While macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals still favour risk assets, challenges have been steadily increasing and a lot of good news is already priced into valuations. We sold part of our equity overweight during the early March rally. Even though we have become more prudent about equities’ short-term...
Read More »House View, April 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationWhile macroeconomic and corporate fundamentals still favour risk assets, challenges have been steadily increasing and a lot of good news is already priced into valuations. We sold part of our equity overweight during the early March rally.Even though we have become more prudent about equities’ short-term prospects, we expect to be able to redeploy the cash generated from this sale as new...
Read More »Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average. That is about “as expected” as you can get for a stock...
Read More »House View, March 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationAlthough markets steadied as February progressed, volatility is unlikely to return to the low levels seen last year. Yet, after a good earnings season, and with strong, synchronised growth, we remain comfortable with our positive stance on developed-market equities. The potential for increased volatility opens the way for trading opportunities – but also calls for extra vigilance,...
Read More »Global Asset Allocation Update:
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Despite the selloff of the last week I don’t believe any portfolio action is warranted. While the overbought condition has largely been corrected now, the S&P 500 is far from the opposite condition, oversold. At the lows this morning, the S&P 500 was officially in...
Read More »House View, February 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.Asset AllocationCurrent conditions vindicate our continued bullish stance on equities in developed markets and emerging markets (Asia more than Latam). Valuations are high, but they are justified by upwards adjustments to expected earnings growth.But with long-term rates rising, we are expecting a rise in volatility from their low current levels. This should benefit active managers.We remain generally...
Read More »House View, January 2018
Pictet Wealth Management's latest positioning across asset classes and invesment themes.Asset AllocationEconomic and earnings growth continue to offer good momentum and the possibility of upside surprises for 2018, so we remain overweight developed market (DM) equities.However, uncertainties over other key aspects of the outlook mean that investors may be unwise to lower their defences. We are keeping tail risk mitigation in portfolios.Emerging market (EM) equities should continue to perform...
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