Tag Archives: 5.) Alhambra Investments

There was dancing in the streets when Social Security announced that 2022 checks will go up by 5.9%, the biggest Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) in 40 years. But now, the streets are empty and the cheering is gone. Most of that Social Security COLA will be eaten up by increases in Medicare. Medicare Part B, which covers doctor services and outpatient care, will go up by 14.5% which is the largest Medicare increase ever. This year the monthly premium for Medicare...

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID. According to these figures, industrial output fell an unsightly 5.4%…from August 2021, meaning month-over-month not year-over-year. Altogether, IP in Japan is down just over 10% since June, nearly 11% since...

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed. In December 2020, millions of Americans still out of work were going to lose government benefits. The Department of Labor would later tally up the scale of this...

Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era are changed on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace. This is a messy and dynamic environment, in which the economy operates out of seeming randomness at times. Yet, here we have something that is “quantitatively” determined...

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup? You can’t blame COVID at the tail end for a woeful string which actually dates back farther than the last pandemic (H1N1). Emil Kalinowski has it absolutely right; what happened in 2013 in the Treasury...

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims. [embedded content] [embedded content] You Might Also Like Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare! 2021-10-25 The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all time highs...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though. Of the first, it’s been a real tsunami at this tenor, too. Up to early August, Treasury had regularly (weekly) sold $40 billion in one-month paper. From...

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I’m so glad you took the time to read it. And now you can forget it because over the next four days all but 2 basis points of the move in the...

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%. It was only two months ago, mid-August, when the Blue Chip consensus pegged quarterly growth at better than 7%. Such a fast drop-off immediately brings up delta...

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated. Yet here we are. I’m not saying, nor have I ever alleged, the government is cheating, cooking the...