It wasn’t a record high, though, as that was set back in July. Yes, the number remains upward in the stratosphere, but it has been in the same general area of it since June. Spoiler alert: this will be a persisting theme.

Possibly a plateau – an incredibly far up one – which, for four months, means perhaps something important.

The rate of HI was thought to be 6.46 million two months ago, yet that wouldn’t have been anything special had it occurred in the lackluster middle 2000’s (chart immediately above). For an economy supposedly on a tear, and with purported demand for workers way, way above historic highs, it’s more than curious the lack of similar proportions for hiring given what we’re led to believe is the historic need for it.

Instead, as you would expect since JOLTS is benchmarked to CES estimates, the labor market seems questionable and at least slower once the seasons shifted – coinciding, of course, with the increased frequency of “disappointing” monthly payrolls counting the last one for November (one month beyond these JOLTS).

It’s not a labor market crash, yet there needn’t be one to lead toward “growth scare.” On the contrary, the employment situation in reality should’ve been bullet-proof, uninterruptable given that recovery in theory was still in the works. To put it bluntly, given just how far real recovery would still have to go, there shouldn’t be any slowdown of any kind to any degree let alone one that is consistent across not just JOLTS nor only US labor data.

Time and time again, June and July show up as a potential turning point in economic data in the same way April and May had for market prices and indications.

Something clearly happened which, moving toward and into Q4 2021, changed the economic trajectory from one which was already suspect to another even more (dangerously) so.

What was it that could have spoiled the trend?

To start with, Uncle Sam; helicopter payments and other transfers were heavily front-loaded into the first few months of 2021. Ever since, they’ve been fading and falling out, leaving the underlying real state of the private economy more exposed. A real unemployment cliff starting September.

Another possible factor, that very “inflation”; oil and gasoline prices, in particular. As history has shown, you want to interrupt pretty much every positive economic trend possible, merely “introduce” an oil price shock and then sit back and wait for the inevitable downturn if not full-on recession.

If the baseline private economy’s rebound from 2020 really hadn’t been all that magnificent, then adding the hugely negative influence from pump prices (paid by both consumers and businesses) along with other rising materials input costs and suddenly (not really) labor becomes a much trickier, potentially costly proposition (see: productivity in Q3).

The anecdotes for some LABOR SHORTAGE!!!! are taken for granted at face value as if these represent the “true” state of the economy when, especially since summer began, questions have swirled as caution even slowdowns have instead emerged all over the place.

Specifically with regard to consumers (therefore consumer spending), from consumer credit to consumer confidence, it has been the same in each, with both series, credit and confidence, including both sets of confidence numbers, tracing out the same clear inflection point.

Yes, just after June:

Curves have been telling us (anyone willing to listen to them and not the “Fed has rigged bonds” gobbledygook) for nine months to be on the lookout for exactly this kind of economic shift.