Tag Archives: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Switzerland’s GDP fell by 0.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2018 due to both the industrial and service sectors. On the expenditure side, domestic demand and foreign trade had a negative impact. Switzerland’s GDP fell by 0.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2018, after climbing by 0.7% in the previous quarter. 1 The strong, continuous growth phase enjoyed by the Swiss economy for one and a half years was suddenly interrupted....

26.11.2018 – In the 3rd quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 1.6% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.1% with previous quarter; seasonally adjusted figures). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.8%. The Swiss economy counted 13 500 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+23%) and the employment outlook indicator continues...

European Commission deems Italy’s budget noncompliant with EU rules. This week, the European Commission issued its opinion on Italy’s budget plans. Deeming them noncompliant with the EU’s budgetary rules, it recommended that an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) be opened.Of the options available to the EU, a debt-based EDP would be the most difficult for Italy to deal with, as it would last longer and require Italy to...

22.11.2018 – Secondary sector production rose by 1.1% in 3rd quarter 2018 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover rose by 3.1%. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In comparison with the previous year industrial production grew in July by 3.3%, in August by 1.7%, then fell in September (-0.4%). For the whole of the 3rd quarter 2018 production increased by 1.4%...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt. Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong...

But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months. Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give...

16.11.2018 – The social partners signatory to Switzerland’s main collective labour agreements (CLA) agreed a nominal rise in real wages of 0.9% and a nominal rise in minimum wages of 0.5% for 2018. Real wages increased by 0.3% at collective level and by 0.6% at individual level. These are the some of the results of the wage agreements survey carried out by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Wage adjustments in...

15.11.2018 – The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.2% between the 3rd quarter 2017 and the 3rd quarter 2018. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) declined by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4%. The EU’s unemployment rate decreased from 7.3% to 6.5%. These are some of the results from the Swiss Labour Force Survey (SLFS). Download press...

The minor concessions continued in the revised plan presented to the European Commission are unlikely to dissuade Brussels from launching sanctions. In a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year. Rome made only minor concessions to Brussels’ demand that it...