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John Henry Smith

John Henry Smith

John Henry Smith has British and Swiss citizenship and between 1980 and 2001 held senior management positions in international banks and other financial institutions, including the former International Securities Market Association. Currently he is a member of the board of directors of four Swiss investment corporations and has engaged in management consultancy.

Articles by John Henry Smith

Free portfolio performance 10 Jun 16

June 14, 2016

Click to enlarge. Click to enlarge.   Up to Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose to a 10-month high of 2119.12 points, less than 1% below its all-time high of 2130.82 of 12 May last year. But stocks pulled back on Thursday and more decisively on Friday, as bo…

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The Free Portfolio and the Age of the Alpha Stock

April 13, 2016

This free portfolio is offered to help investors understand that what they may have learnt about risk and return do not correspond to the realities of investing today.     Unfortunately Sketchers (SKX), which lost more than 12% has not yet bottomed o…

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The stock market’s siamese twin oiled Friday’s rally

February 16, 2016

Dear Investors! Because the stock market is currently strongly correlated to the energy sector, Friday’s rally responded in kind on the news of a surge of 12.3% in the NYMEX WTI sweet crude market after a report had suggested that OPEC may finally ag…

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The stock market’s siamese twin oiled Friday’s rally

February 16, 2016

Dear Investors! Because the stock market is currently strongly correlated to the energy sector, Friday’s rally responded in kind on the news of a surge of 12.3% in the NYMEX WTI sweet crude market after a report had suggested that OPEC may finally ag…

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The Age of the Alpha Stock

February 1, 2016

The fourth quarter 2015 earnings season is now in full swing. From what I have seen of the outstanding earnings surprises and favourable future guidance in the Grail Portfolios, there is enough thrust to propel them higher, as these three examples show.

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Beware the Ides of the Earnings Season!

January 29, 2016

It is critical for an investor to be very vigilant during the earnings season, which already began on January 11 with Alcoa (AA) reporting its results. Not only do companies report their financials, but they also make other significant announcements,…

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That was the week that was!

January 27, 2016

Week January 17-22 This was the first winning week of 2016 and of some relief to ordinary investors. The question is whether it is sustainable, or just a short-covering bounce, as is frequently the case when the market is undergoing a correction. Cur…

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Miserable week that ended a miserable year

January 5, 2016

It was a miserable week that ended a miserable year, followed by an apparently bad first week in 2016. In fact it was the S&P 500’s worst since the start of the bull market in 2009, ending the year down 0.73% at 2043.94 points! Volume was seasonally …

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Only high-Alpha Investing in 2016 will be profitable!

January 1, 2016

As you may have expected, last week the market moved more into wind-down mode as the week progressed and dosed to a near-sleep on Friday’s half-day with the S&P500’s volume down 53%. This is the usual script at this time of year, so that the market i…

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The Fallacies of Portfolio Volatility Measurements

September 27, 2015

Standard deviation (sigma σ) measures volatility or the dispersion of random values around the mean of a variable such as a portfolio or individual stock prices, but does not measure the direction of a trend.
Standard Deviation as volatility measure

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Mark of a true investor: He disregards instincts

September 14, 2015

The stock market works very differently than the natural world. When an animal is spooked, its first reaction is to freeze. Naturalists say that freezing helps animals escape the attention of predators, which hunt by sensing movement. Try that trick …

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Listen to the Sirens of the Stock Market at your Peril!

September 3, 2015

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesied the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: …

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Adjust Your Sales in today’s Choppy Market!

August 22, 2015

This year began with the U.S. stock market facing ever increasing headwinds that whipped up choppier waves with whiter crests and deeper troughs. These harsh winds have blown from the four points of the compass, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve Board,…

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Don’t Over-Complicate Investment!

August 18, 2015

Just another Rube Goldberg Machine

The Rube Goldman machines
We normally like to keep things simple and do things the easy way, but we’re completely fascinated by Rube Goldberg machines. They require a level of skill and patience we doubt we’ll eve…

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John Henry Smith, the Grail: Abnormally High Returns

August 18, 2015

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the …

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