Tag Archives: us china trade

The US and China reached a ‘trade truce’ on the margins of the G20 summit this weekend, but existing tariffs remain in place. And we are only a tweet away from more Trumpian upheaval. The US and China leaders agreed on a truce during their much-anticipated meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka this weekend. Bilateral trade talks will restart. Trump put to bed the threat of additional tariffs, although the existing tariffs...

The US and China reached a ‘trade truce’ on the margins of the G20 summit this weekend, but existing tariffs remain in place. And we are only a tweet away from more Trumpian upheaval.The US and China leaders agreed on a truce during their much-anticipated meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka this weekend. Bilateral trade talks will restart. Trump put to bed the threat of additional tariffs, although the existing tariffs on roughly half of Chinese imports will stay at 25%. Importantly, Trump...

While Trump’s weekend tweets have created fresh uncertainties around US trade talks with China, some perspective is needed. At the weekend, US President Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports as he believes that US-China trade negotiations are going “too slowly”. Importantly, Trump’s threats do not mean bilateral talks are breaking down. Indeed, the Chinese government confirmed today that its...

While Trump’s weekend tweets have created fresh uncertainties around US trade talks with China, some perspective is needed.At the weekend, US President Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports as he believes that US-China trade negotiations are going “too slowly”. Importantly, Trump’s threats do not mean bilateral talks are breaking down. Indeed, the Chinese government confirmed today that its trade delegation would still go to Washington DC this week for another round...

A tentative deal is possible by March, but tensions will likely flare up again.Following the Trump-Xi dinner on 1 December, there are signs of goodwill on both sides, leaving the impression that a ‘mini deal’ is possible before the 1 March 2019 deadline set by the US. This could push back the threat of additional tariffs in the very near term.But we think the devil will be in the details, and particularly in the implementation details. Some sort of hiccup is likely to take place once we...

But signs already point to divergence in interpretation.A temporary trade truce was agreed between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at a dinner during the G20 meeting this weekend. As part of this truce, the tariff rate on USD200 billion of Chinese imports will stay unchanged at 10% up to 1 March, instead of increasing to 25%, as planned, in January.Deferring the hike in tariffs is a way for the Trump administration to keep pressure on China to discuss wide-ranging...

As the US vies to maintain world leadership beyond commerce, its policies will continue to create waves for markets.Today we are witnessing a redefinition of international relations and a new, although likely unstable, global equilibrium. The trade dispute unfolding today between the US and China should be seen in light of shifting structural trends that have developed over the last few decades. We expect rationality will eventually prevail, but the outlook is muddled by the Trump...

We expect the authorities to adapt fiscal and monetary policies to deal with downward risks to growth prospects.Chinese GDP for Q2 came in at Rmb22.0 trillion (about USD3.4 trillion), rising 6.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. This represents a moderate deceleration from Q1 (6.8% y-o-y), largely in line with our expectations (see chart). For the first two quarters of the year as a whole, the economy expanded by 6.8% compared to the same period last year.The data show that China’s...

The new US tariffs threatening Chinese imports and probable retaliation could bite into US and Chinese growth. As US midterm elections approach, the situation could worsen before it gets better.The Trump administration has stepped up its trade actions further by increasing the net of Chinese imports that will be subject to US tariffs: on top of the USD50 billion of Chinese imports subject to a 25% tariff already announced, the US Trade Representative has prepared a list of a further USD200...

A significant softening of the US stance increases the likelihood of reaching a final agreement.Two weeks after the US-China talks in Beijing, the two countries held another round of trade negotiations in Washington DC on 17-18 May. After the meetings, delegations on both sides released a joint statement that was brief but constructive in tone. In essence, China has agreed to significantly increase its imports of American goods and services to reduce the US trade deficit with China, to...