Tag Archives: The United States

I know it hurts, but the reality is painfully obvious: the USA is now a 3rd World nation. Dividing the Earth’s nations into 1st, 2nd and 3rd world has fallen out of favor;apparently it offended sensibilities. It has been replaced by the politically correct developed and developing nations, a terminology which suggests all developing nations are on the pathway to developed-nation status. What’s been lost in jettisoning...

July 4th is an appropriate day to borrow Winston Churchill’s the gathering storm to describe the existential crisis that will envelope America within the next decade. There is no single cause of the gathering storm; in complex systems, dynamics feed back into one another, and the sum of destabilizing disorder is greater than a simple sum of its parts. Causal factors can be roughly broken into two categories: systemic...

While monetary tightening remains the main risk for global stock markets, the threat of a trade war continues to dominate the headlines… THE DONALD’S DEALMAKING The question raised by Donald Trump’s trade agenda with China remains, in essence, extremely simple. It is whether The Donald is engaged in a typical ‘Art of the Deal’ negotiation, where he can suddenly turn on a dime and declare a ‘win’, or whether he is...

I missed durable goods last month for scheduling reasons, which was a shame given that May is the month each year for benchmark revisions to the series. Since new estimates under the latest revisions were released today, it seems an appropriate time to revisit the topic of data bias, and why that matters. What happens with durable goods (or any data for that matter, the process is largely the same) is that the Census...

Employment expands in the Protected cartel-dominated sectors, and declines in every sector exposed to globalization, domestic competition and cheap capital. If you want to understand why the global economy is failing the many while enriching the few, start with the basics: capital, labor and resources. What happens when central banks drop interest rates to near-zero? Capital becomes dirt-cheap. It becomes ludicrously...

You deserve a realistic account of the economy you’re joining. Dear high school graduates: please glance at these charts before buying into the conventional life-course being promoted by the status quo. Here’s the summary: the status quo is pressuring you to accept its “solutions”: borrow mega-bucks to attend college, then buy a decaying bungalow or hastily constructed stucco box for $800,000 in a “desirable” city, pay...

[embedded content] Information and opinions about the economy and markets from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun. Related posts: Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO Weekly SNB Intervention Update: SNB Resumes Interventions Cookie policy Privacy Policy Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil,...

Rather suddenly, the state issued fiat currency bolivar lost 99% of its purchasing power. Gresham’s law holds that “bad money drives out good money,” meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, “money” that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating “bad” to buy goods and services and hoard “good” money that is appreciating or holding its value. As this dynamic plays...

Is the rate hiking cycle almost done? Not the question on everyone’s minds right now so a good time to ask it, I think. A couple of items caught my attention recently that made me at least think about the possibility.  There has been for some time now a large short position held by speculators in the futures market for Treasuries. Speculators have been making large and consistent bets that Treasury prices would fall....

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown? These are critical questions for investors and ones that can’t be...