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Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, June 6...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Small Crowds, Shrinking Premiums The prices of gold and silver rose five bucks and 37 cents respectively last week. Is this the blast off to da moon for the silver rocket of halcyon days, in other words 2010-2011? We will look at the basis signals in a bit. But for now, we want to comment on the absolutely moribund state...

The concept of bank reserves grew from the desire to avoid the periodic bank runs that plagued Western financial systems. As noted in detail starting here, the question had always been how much cash in a vault was enough? Governments around the world decided to impose a minimum requirement, both as a matter of sanctioned safety and also to reassure the public about a particular bank’s status. Later on, governments...

This is not what we ordered! German factory orders collapsed in April, suggesting that the economic slowdown could extend into Q2. The underlying pace of domestic demand expansion looks more resilient. The main downside risks relate to net exports, in our view. Still, the most recent data releases have not been fully consistent with the ECB’s “hawkish moderation” scenario. A rebound in soft and hard data will be...

Wer sich intensiv mit der fachlichen Materie „Vollgeld-Initiative“ auseinandergesetzt hat, kann aufatmen. Wäre diese Initiative angenommen worden, hätte deren Umsetzung unser Land in ein wirtschaftliches und politisches Chaos gestürzt. Es hätte nur zwei Möglichkeiten gegeben: entweder die Initiative einfach ignorieren und nicht umsetzen (wie das in unserem Land mehr und mehr in Mode kommt) oder sie nachträglich für...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has acknowledged the outcome of the popular vote on the sovereign money initiative. The SNB has a constitutional and statutory mandate to pursue a monetary policy serving the interests of the country as a whole. It is charged with ensuring price stability while taking due account of economic developments. The adoption of the sovereign money initiative would have made it considerably more...

Spoiled for choice? More job offers continue to push down unemployment. The unemployment rate in Switzerland has reached a new nadir – just 2.4%, according to latest official statistics. The number of jobseekers is the lowest since the financial crisis. The statistics, published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday, show that the numbers of unemployed turning up at job centres fell by 9% last...

The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations. If the US does so, China has threatened to retract...

 Summary The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time since 2014. Malaysia’s central bank governor resigned. Czech central bank tilted more hawkish. Russia central bank tilted more dovish. Argentina got a $50 bln standby program from the IMF. Brazil central bank signaled more aggressive FX intervention ahead. Mexico trade tensions with US are rising. Peru has a new Finance Minister. Stock Markets In the EM...

– “Without gold I would have starved to death” – Ewald Nowotny, governor of Austrian central bank and member of ECB’s governing council – “I was born in 1944. When I was a baby, my mother could only buy food because she still had some gold coins…” – “When the going gets tough, gold becomes the ultimate money” reports Die Presse Under central bank governor Ewald Nowotny, Austria has brought back half of its gold reserves...