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Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way. Like 2017, when gold was last rising, there...

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December’s estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k).  The participation rate edged...

Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the business cycle was no longer a valid assumption. The mantra,...

Dining out is less likely on a lower wage. (© KEYSTONE / GAETAN BALLY) The pay gap between men and women in Switzerland has increased slightly, amounting to hundreds of francs per month on average. Men earned 19.6% more pay than female colleagues in 2016, compared to a 19.5% difference in 2012. While some of this gap can be explained by length of service, additional qualifications and the like, in more than four out of...

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word “brinkmanship” as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that “if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost.” But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization.   The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem. The Cuban Missile...

Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the latest information about markets, specific categories affecting the economy. [embedded content] Related posts: Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – December 2018 (VIDEO) Monthly Macro Monitor – August Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2018 Monthly Macro Monitor –...

Daniel Haudenschild (left) with the new CVA board following their election. (Crypto Valley Association) The new President of the Crypto Valley Association has vowed to turn around the divided organization. Daniel Haudenschild was elected on Thursday evening together with a new board following months of unrest. Speaking to swissinfo.ch two days after his shock departure from Swisscom Blockchain, Haudenschild said his...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% at 1.1407 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report. Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank’s Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though...

01.02.2019 – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous year....

Not quite 10% walk to work in Switzerland; more than half drive. Nine out of ten employees in Switzerland – or four million people total – commuted to work last year, most of them to another municipality, and most by car. In 2017, the average one-way Swiss commute was 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) and took 30.6 minutes, reported the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link on Tuesday. Some 71% of commuters traveled to...